Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (May) Manufacturing sales volumes plunged in May amid renewed semiconductor shortages, but there is scope for a more sustained rebound over the second half of this year, despite the worsening global... 14th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily We think Treasury yields will rise again even if inflation eases While we expect upcoming US CPI reports to be more encouraging than June’s one, we still think that the yield of 10-year Treasuries will rise further over the remainder of this year. 13th July 2022 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank pulls out all the stops with 100 bp hike The Bank of Canada’s 100 bp hike today and its accompanying communications have led us to upgrade our forecast for the policy rate to 3.5% by the October policy meeting, from 3.0%. As the commodity... 13th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Total crude stocks fell again, mainly due to ongoing sales from the strategic reserve. That said, the big news was hefty builds in petroleum product stocks, suggesting that high prices are finally... 13th July 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Jun.) The stronger than expected 1.3% rise in consumer prices in June, which pushed headline inflation to 9.1%, from 8.6%, nails on another 75bp rate hike at the July FOMC meeting. But with commodity prices... 13th July 2022 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook Southern metros to outperform Since the release of our previous Apartment Metro Outlook three months ago the interest rate environment has become more negative for real estate, and we now expect yields to rise in many metros this... 12th July 2022 · 11 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Why this price correction will be nothing like the GFC Although we expect a comparable rise in interest rates to that which preceded the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), we think the risk of a credit-driven bust in the commercial real estate market is low... 11th July 2022 · 4 mins read
Energy Update Strong demand for US natural gas to keep prices high After a period of extreme volatility, we expect the price of US natural gas to edge higher in the remainder of this year. Together, a rise in LNG exports and a pick-up in US consumption this winter... 11th July 2022 · 4 mins read
US Economics Focus Is a recession coming soon? We think that the economy is well-placed to handle higher interest rates and anticipate a period of weak economic growth rather than an outright recession: Rate-sensitive spending is a relatively... 11th July 2022 · 17 mins read
US Economics Weekly Market moves may give the Fed an easier task With the June employment report suggesting fears of an imminent recession are misplaced, the Fed looks set to press ahead with aggressive rate hikes over the coming months. That said, recent sharp... 8th July 2022 · 8 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Inflation expectations too high for the Bank The falls in commodity prices this week point to some relief ahead for CPI inflation, but the Bank of Canada will be more focused on the rises in long-run inflation expectations and wage growth in the... 8th July 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update We think US and EZ corporate spreads will stay high While the largest increases in corporate spreads in the US and the euro-zone may now be behind us, we suspect that a challenging economic backdrop will keep spreads elevated in both places for some... 8th July 2022 · 4 mins read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Jun.) The surprise fall in employment in June appears to reflect seasonal effects and, with wage growth surging to 5.2% y/y, the Bank of Canada will follow through next week on its hint of a larger 75 bp... 8th July 2022 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jun.) The strong 372,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in June appears to make a mockery of claims the economy is heading into, let alone already in, a recession. That may be enough to solidify the case for... 8th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Equities may underperform bonds if earnings falter As forecasts for corporate earnings in the US finally start to come down amid worries about the outlook for the economy there, this Update considers the implications for equities and bonds. 8th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US commercial crude stocks rose owing to a fall in net exports and lower inputs to refineries. For now, implied product demand remains in line with its seasonal norm, but we expect demand to be soft... 7th July 2022 · 2 mins read
