US Data Response US Employment Report (Feb.) The above-consensus 311,000 increase in payroll employment last month confirms that the super-sized 504,000 gain in January wasn’t just a seasonal distortion, but the rest of February’s report will... 10th March 2023 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update Some lessons for equities from “stop-go” monetary policy The Fed is clearly trying to avoid a premature easing in financial conditions and a repeat of 1970s-style “stop-go” monetary policy. This Update discusses some lessons from that period for equity... 9th March 2023 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update How King Cash may reign over equities & bonds The US may not have a monarchy, but cash has arguably become its proverbial king of investments. If history is a guide, it is a reign that is likely to feature equities underperforming bonds amid a... 9th March 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Industrial completions set to fall back from 2024 We expect industrial completions to exceed 3.5% of inventory this year, despite the first quarterly drop in space under construction in Q4 for over two years. But new starts are already slowing and... 9th March 2023 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update JOLTS show drop back in both openings and quits The JOLTS survey showed a drop back in job openings in January, with the timelier job postings data from Indeed pointing to a more marked deterioration in labour market conditions in February. 8th March 2023 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Risky assets largely shrugging off “higher for longer” Most “risky” assets have taken a knock in the past month. But this mainly seems to reflect an adjustment in valuations to higher “risk-free” rates, rather than growing concerns about tighter policy... 8th March 2023 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Update Policy unchanged, but Bank prepared to resume hikes The Bank of Canada kept its policy rate unchanged at 4.5% today as expected but, with one eye on the strength of the recent US data and the Fed’s hawkish reaction to that, it sounded less confident... 8th March 2023 · 3 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (Jan.) The widening in the international trade deficit to $68.3bn in January, from $67.2bn, included big rebounds in both imports and exports which, at face value, add to the signs that demand is... 8th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response International Trade (Jan.) The strong gains in exports and imports in January suggest that easing supply shortages are offsetting the negative impact of higher interest rates on both external and domestic demand. That presents... 8th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Humphrey-Hawkins turns into Helter-Skelter for money markets While the Fed is drawing closer to the end of its tightening cycle, today’s events suggest there may still be few more bumps in the road for financial markets. 7th March 2023 · 6 mins read
US Housing Market Update Poor affordability key to bigger price falls in the West In this Update we examine the implications of affordability for house prices at the market level. Despite sunbelt markets seeing the strongest house price growth over the past couple of years... 6th March 2023 · 3 mins read
