US Housing Market Chart Pack House prices begin to fall A deterioration in the economic outlook and renewed rise in mortgage rates to a 16-year high in September means the housing market is set for a further slowdown. We estimate that mortgage payments as... 14th October 2022 · 10 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada avoids UK-style market fallout Canada is unlikely to succumb to the same crisis currently afflicting UK markets, but those problems are a reminder that rapidly rising interest rates have a habit of breaking things. In Canada’s case... 14th October 2022 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily We still think US Treasury yields will fall back eventually Although core inflationary pressures in the US seem more persistent than we and most others had anticipated, we still think Treasury yields are near their peak and will fall in time. 13th October 2022 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Sector allocation as the economic outlook darkens We think that traditional “defensive” sectors of the US stock market – consumer staples, health care and utilities – will continue to hold up better than “tech-orientated” sectors – information... 12th October 2022 · 6 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Growth downgrades to dent real estate returns in 2023 With a mild recession now built into our forecast, the outlook for commercial real estate performance has worsened. But because this is a relatively small downgrade and it is joined by an expectation... 12th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Update We don’t expect the relative rout in US REITs to persist Although we think that US equity REITs may have further to fall, we don’t expect them to continue to underperform the broader US stock market. The key reason is that we don’t expect Treasury yields to... 7th October 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update S&P 500 may fall even further than we’d thought With the Fed seemingly still in a hawkish mood and the US and global economies struggling, we now expect the S&P 500 to decline further than we’d previously thought. 7th October 2022 · 4 mins read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Sep.) The first rise in employment in four months was not as strong as it looked, as it was driven entirely by the public sector, while the fall in hours worked points to downside risks to GDP growth... 7th October 2022 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Falling rent-frees do not point to an office recovery REIS data show rent-free periods dropped back in the first half of the year, hinting at a tightening market. But with occupiers still rationalising their office portfolios, we expect vacancy to tick... 6th October 2022 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Update House prices to fall by 8% Against a backdrop of higher mortgage rates, a weaker economy and prices falling earlier than expected, we have cut our forecast and now expect a peak-to-trough fall in house prices of 8%, down from... 6th October 2022 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Recession Watch (Sep.) In light of the Fed’s increasingly aggressive monetary tightening, we now think the economy is headed for a mild recession early next year. Our composite tracking models support that forecast, with... 6th October 2022 · 5 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Modest recession could morph into something worse The jump in interest rates and worsening global backdrop leaves the economy facing recession, and elevated debt levels are a downside risk to our forecast for a moderate peak-to-trough fall in GDP of... 6th October 2022 · 20 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Charlotte office rental growth to outpace US average We think the Charlotte office market will continue to outperform the US average, as firms capitalise on the city’s affordability and position as a prominent financial district. As such, even though... 5th October 2022 · 3 mins read
US Economic Outlook Recession will add to disinflationary pressure We expect inflation to fall more rapidly than the Fed anticipates, albeit partly because the even-bigger surge in interest rates will send the economy into a mild recession early next year and drive... 5th October 2022 · 24 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Sep.) The sixth consecutive month of falling home purchase activity in September was driven by a sharp rise in mortgage rates to 6.75% at the end of the month. With a significant easing in credit conditions... 5th October 2022 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Update Market uncertainty pushes up mortgage rates An upward revision to our 10-year Treasury yield forecast and a widening in spreads have led us to upgrade our mortgage rate forecasts. We now expect the 30-year fixed rate will stay close to 6.5% for... 4th October 2022 · 3 mins read
