Canada Economics Weekly Stagflation summer The further falls in home sales and employment in July add to the evidence that the economy is losing momentum. With no sign of a material easing of inflationary pressures, however, it is too soon to... 5th August 2022 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly Democrats pivot to fiscal tightening Alongside Pelosi's visit to Taiwan this week, the recently-passed Chips and Science Act is another illustration of the slow-motion decoupling that is developing between the US and China. The modest... 5th August 2022 · 6 mins read
US Housing Market Update Higher rates to prevent rise in homeownership The odds are stacking up against first-time buyers (FTBs), an important demographic for homeownership. A very limited number of starter homes on the market, higher interest rates, tight credit... 5th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (July) The second consecutive monthly fall in employment will raise a few eyebrows at the Bank of Canada but, as retirements were partly to blame, the unemployment rate remained at a record low and wage... 5th August 2022 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jul.) The unexpected acceleration in non-farm payroll growth in July, together with the further decline in the unemployment rate and the renewed pick-up in wage pressures, suggests the economy is still a... 5th August 2022 · 2 mins read
FX Markets Outlook We think the dollar rally still has further to run We think the dollar will appreciate further through at least the end of the year as the global economy continues to falter and “safe-haven” demand remains strong. Although we see limited scope for a... 4th August 2022 · 22 mins read
US Commercial Property Focus Ranking the US’s largest warehousing markets We think that major distribution hubs, where rents are high and availability is low, will underperform their neighbouring markets over the next few years. Tenants will increasingly look past the major... 4th August 2022 · 21 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (June) The fall in the trade deficit to an eight-month low of $79.6bn in June, from $84.9bn, leaves net trade well placed to support a rebound in GDP in the third quarter. But with the surveys consistent... 4th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Crude oil prices have been for a rollercoaster ride today, rising by $3 per barrel following the OPEC+ meeting, and then more than erasing those gains later on. Prices fell particularly sharply after... 3rd August 2022 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response US Metro Employment (Jun.) There was little evidence of any slowdown in June’s job figures, but the deep divisions in performance at the metro level remained. Dallas and Austin stood out on a range of comparisons, while... 3rd August 2022 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Jul.) Both refinancing and home purchase activity continued to trend lower in July, with the latter down by around 30% since the start of the year. Against a backdrop of stretched affordability and record... 3rd August 2022 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Labour shortages easing only gradually The sharper fall in job openings in June signals that labour demand is now beginning to ease more markedly, but with the quits rate little changed and no signs of a pick-up in layoffs, labour market... 2nd August 2022 · 3 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jul.) Although the ISM manufacturing index fell again in July, to 52.8 from 53.0, the rate of decline does at least appear to be slowing and, for now, it remains consistent with GDP growth of roughly 1.5%... 1st August 2022 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed hikes as GDP sinks The second-quarter decline in GDP was not quite as bad as it looked, and with the Fed sounding increasingly comfortable with continuing to raise interest rates through a period of weak economic growth... 29th July 2022 · 8 mins read
US Housing Market Update Tight supply limits threat from rising construction The current surge in homes under construction has few parallels with the building boom that preceded the house price crash in the late 2000s. The build-up of homes under construction has largely been... 29th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Reassessing our forecasts for US markets We still expect a higher 10-year Treasury yield, lower S&P 500 and stronger US dollar over the remainder of the year, but have pared back our forecasts for the rise in yields and fall in equities. In... 29th July 2022 · 6 mins read
