US Housing Market Rapid Response Housing Starts (Aug. 2024) The large rise in housing starts in August was due to a rebound in starts in the south, confirming that the July slump was a temporary disruption caused by Hurricane Beryl. The increase in permits... 18th September 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Will remote work go into reverse? We doubt the announcement by Amazon that it is requiring office-based workers to return full-time marks the start of a reversal in the remote work share. It is far from clear that requiring five days... 18th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Will the dollar catch a break anytime soon? We doubt the gap between expected interest rates in the US and its trading partners will keep shrinking, given what’s priced into the money markets. That could potentially buoy the dollar in time... 17th September 2024 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch (Sep. 2024) Increased supply and weaker demand are pushing down rents in several cities. That raises the risk of another leg down for apartment prices, despite the recent drop in mortgage rates. 17th September 2024 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Lower gasoline prices to cushion consumers Despite the US being a net oil exporter, the recent plunge in the oil price will be a tailwind for the economy, as lower gasoline prices support consumer confidence and real consumption. The Fed will... 17th September 2024 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response Industrial Production (Aug. 2024) Manufacturing output rebounded strongly in August as the temporary disruptions to production from the previous month were reversed. Together with last month’s solid gain in control group retail sales... 17th September 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Retail Sales (Aug. 2024) The stronger-than-expected retail sales data for August suggest that, boosted by rapid wealth gains and falling energy prices, consumers continue to spend freely despite the labour market slowdown... 17th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (Aug. 2024) The return of headline inflation to the 2.0% target in August was mainly due to favourable base effects and is likely to be short-lived, with inflation rebounding to as high as 2.5% by the turn of the... 17th September 2024 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Low saving rate not a major concern The continued decline in the saving rate, which is now close to a 16-year low, is not a major concern given the recent surge in household net wealth. Furthermore, as the saving rate is calculated from... 16th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Manufacturing Sales (Jul. 2024) The 0.9% m/m rise in manufacturing sales volumes in July implies there are upside risks to the flash estimate that total GDP was unchanged at the start of the third quarter, although the negative tone... 16th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of US households’ appetite for equities US households’ appetite for equities often depends on how confident they feel. Its strength in recent years is therefore rather surprising, given that their mood hasn’t been upbeat. Sentiment did perk... 13th September 2024 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Struggling dollar may be due a break The US dollar is ending the week on the back foot against most currencies amid mounting expectation for a 50bp cut by the Fed next week. That comes in the wake of two seemingly coordinated pieces in... 13th September 2024 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Shelter inflation the last piece of the puzzle The 25bp vs 50bp debate, which seemed settled following Governor Christopher Waller’s cautious speech shortly after the August Employment Report, was blown back open this week by what appeared to be... 13th September 2024 · 7 mins read
US Rapid Response Uni. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Sep. 2024) Despite the small rise in the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index in September, consumer confidence remains in a slump. At face value, weak sentiment points to softer consumer spending... 13th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Developers continue to shrug off high interest rates The sharp rebounds in both residential and non-residential building permit issuance in July eased concerns that the construction sector is about to take a turn for the worse. Risks remain, however... 13th September 2024 · 7 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook Apartments to top the charts with total returns of 9.5% p.a. There are tentative signs of improvement in the investment market, but we continue to think refinancing requirements will weigh on transactions. We still think appraisal-based valuations need to... 12th September 2024 · 21 mins read
