US Economics Weekly

Fed opts for a 50 despite strong GDP growth

The Fed’s decision to start its rate cutting cycle with a bang was not a big surprise after the seemingly coordinated media articles late last week warning that the 25bp vs 50bp debate was closer than...

20th September 2024 · 6 mins read

Canada Rapid Response

Retail Sales (Jul. 2024)

The rebound in retail sales volumes in July will be welcome news to the Bank of Canada, which has been concerned about the downside risks to the economy. With the outlook for sales positive, there is...

20th September 2024 · 1 min read

Global Economics Update

Five key themes in world trade

In the months ahead, there are five themes to watch for in the world of trade and shipping, the most immediate of which is the risk of strikes at US East and Gulf coast ports in October. The upshot is...

19th September 2024 · 6 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

Existing Home Sales (Aug. 2024)

The slump in existing home sales in August shows that the sharp fall in mortgage rates since late-July is yet to stimulate the market, although the signs of life in last week’s purchase mortgage...

19th September 2024 · 2 mins read

US Chart Pack

US Chart Pack (Sep. 2024)

After kicking off its loosening cycle with a 50bp cut, we suspect the Fed will now revert to 25bp moves until the fed funds target range reaches 3.00% to 3.25% in mid-2025. Looser monetary policy...

19th September 2024 · 1 min read

Capital Daily

Is the easing cycle already priced in?

Markets barely reacted to the Fed’s 50bp rate cut, on balance, and our base case is that further cuts won’t move the needle too much either. In view of the broader interest we are sending this early...

19th September 2024 · 4 mins read

US Economics Update

Fed opts to start loosening cycle with a bang

The Fed did cut its policy rate by a bigger 50bp today, to between 4.75% and 5.00%, but the vote was not unanimous and the new rate projections point to smaller 25bp cuts at the remaining two FOMC...

18th September 2024 · 3 mins read

US Rapid Response

Fed Policy Announcement (Sep)

The Fed did cut its policy rate by a bigger 50bp, to between 4.75% and 5.00%, but the vote was not unanimous and the new rate projections only shows an additional 50bp of cuts between now and the end...

18th September 2024 · 2 mins read

Capital Daily

Economic outlook matters more than “50 vs 25”

Policymakers have put themselves in a tricky spot ahead of today’s pivotal FOMC announcement. But whatever the size of the policy rate cut they end up delivering, the outlook for the US economy is...

18th September 2024 · 4 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

Housing Starts (Aug. 2024)

The large rise in housing starts in August was due to a rebound in starts in the south, confirming that the July slump was a temporary disruption caused by Hurricane Beryl. The increase in permits...

18th September 2024 · 2 mins read

UK Commercial Property Update

Will remote work go into reverse?

We doubt the announcement by Amazon that it is requiring office-based workers to return full-time marks the start of a reversal in the remote work share. It is far from clear that requiring five days...

18th September 2024 · 4 mins read

Capital Daily

Will the dollar catch a break anytime soon?

We doubt the gap between expected interest rates in the US and its trading partners will keep shrinking, given what’s priced into the money markets. That could potentially buoy the dollar in time...

17th September 2024 · 5 mins read

Canada Economics Update

Canada Housing Watch (Sep. 2024)

Increased supply and weaker demand are pushing down rents in several cities. That raises the risk of another leg down for apartment prices, despite the recent drop in mortgage rates.

17th September 2024 · 4 mins read

US Economics Update

Lower gasoline prices to cushion consumers

Despite the US being a net oil exporter, the recent plunge in the oil price will be a tailwind for the economy, as lower gasoline prices support consumer confidence and real consumption. The Fed will...

17th September 2024 · 3 mins read

US Rapid Response

Industrial Production (Aug. 2024)

Manufacturing output rebounded strongly in August as the temporary disruptions to production from the previous month were reversed. Together with last month’s solid gain in control group retail sales...

17th September 2024 · 2 mins read