Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Commercial crude stocks rose again this week, despite a rise in inputs to refineries. That said, refinery activity is unlikely to pick up markedly in the coming weeks given ongoing maintenance and... 8th February 2023 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Recession or economic resurgence? The unexpected surge in payroll employment in January has led to claims of an economic resurgence that will force the Fed to keep hiking interest rates but, on balance, we still think the real economy... 8th February 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update We think bond yields will fall in Canada & ANZ We think sovereign bond yields in Canada, Australia, and New Zealand will drop further by end-2023. 8th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Why the plunge in credit spreads may be a head fake A recent plunge in credit spreads in the US is one clear sign of hope that the economy there is heading for a soft landing. It jars, however, with two developments that point to the slightly gloomier... 7th February 2023 · 6 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (Dec.) The December trade data show a rebound in both real exports and imports but, with those gains following steep declines in previous months and the surveys pointing to renewed weakness to come, the data... 7th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response International Trade (Dec.) A surge in motor vehicle exports drove export volumes higher at the end of 2022, even as lower commodity prices weighed on export values. While there is scope for motor vehicle exports to recover... 7th February 2023 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Tighter lending standards point to a weak H1 The surge in interest rates and tightening in credit conditions last year resulted in a broad-based plunge in loan demand in the fourth quarter. Most banks expect to continue tightening standards this... 7th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the recent US sector rotation Although the sectors in the S&P 500 that are dominated by US “big-tech” have outperformed the broader market substantially since the start of 2023, we aren’t convinced this will continue. 6th February 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We still think slow growth will weigh on US equities Despite some good news on the US economy today, we still expect US equities to struggle for a bit as growth slows. 3rd February 2023 · 7 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Robust US economic data spark a rebound in the greenback The US dollar looks likely to record its largest weekly rise against other major currencies since its cyclical peak in September of last year. While investors’ dovish interpretations of announcements... 3rd February 2023 · 11 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Pipelines will weigh on Austin, NYC and Seattle offices We expect a further slowing in office completions over the next few years as a combination of factors weigh on the profitability of new projects. But our latest review of the metro-level completion... 3rd February 2023 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly The opposite of stagflation The strength of the early January data appears to rule out the possibility of an imminent recession, but that won’t prevent inflation from continuing to fall sharply from here. 3rd February 2023 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Mixed signals There were more mixed signals this week on how the economy is coping with higher interest rates. The GDP data suggest fourth-quarter growth was stronger than initially expected and the manufacturing... 3rd February 2023 · 6 mins read
