US Economics Weekly Economy starts the year on a strong footing Echoing the unexpectedly large increase in payroll employment last month, January’s retail sales and manufacturing output data were unquestionably strong too. Admittedly, retail sales appear to have... 17th February 2023 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt equities and the dollar will move in tandem for long The recent strength of the US dollar and resilience of equity markets is a relatively unusual combination. While that could last for a while longer, we continue to think that the outlook for the... 16th February 2023 · 6 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Jan.) Single-family housing starts dropped back in January and the permits data add weight to our view that more weakness is to come. We think that starts will edge lower in the coming months, before an... 16th February 2023 · 2 mins read
FX Markets Update We expect the Mexican peso to reverse course before long The Mexican peso’s outperformance since the start of 2022 has pushed up its valuation substantially, and we think that this leaves it vulnerable to sharp falls against the US dollar if, as we expect... 16th February 2023 · 4 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Commercial crude stocks rose to their highest since June 2021 last week due to lower refinery activity. With crude demand likely to remain sluggish over the coming months, and the US government set to... 15th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch (Feb.) The unseasonably warm start to 2023 provided little support to the housing market or construction, with sales and prices falling further in January while housing starts slumped to a 28-month low. As... 15th February 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Trying to make sense of the mixed messages in US bond markets This year’s growing inversion of the Treasury curve can be reconciled with the accompanying slump in credit spreads if the monetary tightening that has caused short-term yields to rise further above... 15th February 2023 · 6 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Jan.) The 1.0% m/m rebound in manufacturing output in January provides further evidence that the economy began the year on a strong footing. That said, while the survey evidence also appears to be turning a... 15th February 2023 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Jan.) The massive 3.0% m/m surge in retail sales in January may have been partly related to the unseasonably mild winter in the Northeast but, alongside the unexpected strength of payroll employment, it... 15th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Dec.) Another rise in motor vehicle manufacturing sales failed to offset weakness elsewhere in December, with overall sales volumes edging down. The rebound in the S&P Manufacturing PMI and manufacturing... 15th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update Lower inflation looks priced in, but slower growth doesn’t A further decline in US inflation seems largely priced in to financial markets. But we still think investors are too optimistic about how quickly the economy will grow, and as such are sticking with... 14th February 2023 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Making sense of the strength of employment The surge in employment in January highlights that some sectors are still recovering strongly and raises the prospect that the economy could avoid recession, although we still judge that a modest one... 14th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Stocks, bonds, and inflation compensation Although they seem to have begun to rise again over recent weeks, we think that investors’ inflation expectations in the US are likely to fall back over the coming months. That would help Treasuries... 14th February 2023 · 7 mins read
