US Fed Watch One last hurrah for the hawks Fed officials appear set on another 25bp rate hike at next week’s FOMC meeting, which would take the fed funds rate to a 22-year high of 5.25%-5.50%. But a run of softer inflation readings over the... 19th July 2023 · 9 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Housing Starts (Jun.) Single-family starts fell back from their 11-month high in June, but remained substantially above the average seen in 2023 thus far as homebuilders remained optimistic. However with mortgage rates... 19th July 2023 · 2 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Jul. 2023) Our US Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. We still think the economy is more likely than not to fall into a mild recession later this year, as... 19th July 2023 · 1 min read
Event Drop-In: The Fed and ECB’s July meetings – and a lookahead to the BoE 1690466400 Rate hikes from the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank at their July meetings look like done deals – it’s the messaging accompanying those decisions that may prove key to what the banks deci
Canada Economics Update Housing Watch (Jul.) The pick-up in existing home sales this year has spread to the pre-construction market, with new home sales in Toronto rebounding strongly. Together with the surge in housing starts in June, that... 18th July 2023 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Trip Notes – NY and Chicago client Q&A Here are answers to some of the key questions that kept coming up during meetings with clients last week in New York and Chicago, and around my presentation to the NCREIF summer conference in Chicago. 18th July 2023 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response Industrial Production (Jun.) The further slump in industrial production in June illustrates that some parts of the economy are already struggling and, as global manufacturing demand continues to soften, we expect further weakness... 18th July 2023 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Retail Sales (June) Despite the modest 0.2% m/m rise in headline retail sales in June, the bigger 0.6% m/m gain in underlying control group sales is a bit more encouraging, although second-quarter consumption growth... 18th July 2023 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack US Housing Market Chart Pack This new Chart Pack has been designed to replace our Chart Book in response to client feedback to make our insights more accessible, and with more options to incorporate them into your workflow. Use... 17th July 2023 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Rising prime-age participation driven by women The resurgence in female prime-age participation to a record high is helping to support labour force growth, but the recent rapid pace of improvement is likely to fade soon. 17th July 2023 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Chart Pack What does the new normal mean for real estate? Slides presented by our Deputy Chief Property Economist, Kiran Raichura, at the Summer NCREIF Conference, outlining our view on what the "new normal" will mean for real estate over the rest of this... 17th July 2023 · 1 min read
US Commercial Property Rapid Response Commercial Property Lending (June) 17th July 2023 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Hawkish hike still likely to be the last in this cycle The Bank of Canada struck a hawkish tone at its meeting this week, emphasising persistent excess demand and sticky price inflation. Nonetheless, with the upgrades to the Bank’s GDP and inflation... 14th July 2023 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Core inflationary pressures melting away The news that core CPI increased by a muted 0.16% m/m in June, which is less than 2% in annualised terms, has raised hopes that the Fed’s planned rate hike this month will be the last in this cycle... 14th July 2023 · 7 mins read
Global Markets Update When & why the stock market has ridden out a recession The stock market in the US has rarely rallied in recessions that have taken place there since the mid-1850s. Our forecast is that it will take a knock amid a recession in H2 2023 before powering ahead... 14th July 2023 · 4 mins read
