Canada Rapid Response

Canada Manufacturing Sales (Sep. 2024)

Despite the 0.4% m/m decline in manufacturing sales volumes in September, the data still appear consistent with the flash estimate that GDP rose by 0.3% that month. Although manufacturing has been...

15th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Initial thoughts on commodities and Trump tariffs

While it is uncertain exactly how Trump will approach tariffs during a second term, China will clearly be in the firing line and commodities could be caught in the crossfire. Iron and steel, and to a...

15th November 2024 · 4 mins read

US Rapid Response

Retail Sales (Oct. 2024)

While October’s retail sales data showed underlying weakness and were accompanied by sizable revisions to previous months, the overall impact on consumption growth was modest. The bottom line is that...

15th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Capital Daily

What next for the Treasury yield curve?

We expect the Treasury yield curve to steepen further over the coming year, but driven by falling short-dated yields rather than – as has been the case in the wake of Trump’s win – rising long-dated...

14th November 2024 · 5 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

Shout it from the rooftops, CRE pricing has troughed

It is increasingly clear to us that pricing in all three regions we forecast has bottomed, even if appraisals are yet to reflect that in mainland Europe and the US. And although we expect recent...

14th November 2024 · 4 mins read

US Rapid Response

Producer Prices (Oct. 2024)

The price data released this week suggest that inflationary pressures are proving stronger than the Fed anticipated. Based on the combined CPI and PPI data, we calculate that the Fed’s preferred core...

14th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Climate Economics Update

One US deficit that won’t worry Trump

President-elect Trump’s distaste for trade deficits surely does not extend to worrying about the US’s large-scale import of carbon emissions through trade flows. The global imbalance between importers...

14th November 2024 · 3 mins read

US Housing Market Update

Trump win puts brakes on housing recovery

While Trump has vowed to lower mortgage rates to 3%, we expect the net effect of his policies to have the opposite effect, keeping borrowing costs higher for longer. With that in mind, we are changing...

14th November 2024 · 5 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Trump and the war in Ukraine

Donald Trump’s re-election has changed perceptions of how the war in Ukraine will develop, with many hoping for a quicker end to the conflict. This Update looks at how the war might evolve and the...

14th November 2024 · 8 mins read

Capital Daily

Inflation might soon be front-page news again

While investors shrugged off today’s news on US inflation, they seem increasingly concerned about its longer-term outlook. We share their view and expect Treasury yields to rise a bit further still.

13th November 2024 · 4 mins read

Event

Video presentation: Trump's second term – Implications for the US economy

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Chief North America Economist Paul Ashworth discusses how Donald Trump’s return could influence the US economic outlook in this 22-minute video presentation.

US Rapid Response

Consumer Prices (Oct.)

The third consecutive 0.3% m/m gain in the core CPI in October is somewhat concerning, with our preliminary calculations pointing to another above-target-consistent 0.22 m/m gain in core PCE prices...

13th November 2024 · 3 mins read

Commodities Update

Trump, Middle East geopolitics & the oil market

It seems likely that the US will step up sanctions enforcement on Iran’s oil trade, though the oil market should be able to absorb this. The much greater risk for oil prices is a more dramatic shift...

12th November 2024 · 4 mins read

Capital Daily

Will Trump’s next trade war upend the S&P 500?

We doubt the S&P 500 will come a cropper in 2025 even though the index fell in 2018 when Donald Trump began to wage a less ambitious trade war than the one he is planning now.

12th November 2024 · 5 mins read

US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor

US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q4 2024)

The sharp decline in the 10-year Treasury yield in Q3 meant marked improvement in our property valuation scores. That left all-property looking “fairly valued” for the first time since the end of 2021...

11th November 2024 · 1 min read