US Economics Update JOLTS shows labour market finding a floor The rebound in job openings in October suggests that labour market conditions are stabilising at a healthy level. Meanwhile, despite a small rebound in the private quits rate, it still points to wage... 3rd December 2024 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Post-pandemic student housing rebound to be short-lived Tight supply conditions will drive a solid rent outlook for the student housing sector over the next year. But the bigger picture remains one of slowing demand as steady declines in the college-age... 3rd December 2024 · 3 mins read
US Economics Focus Will Trump get his new tax cuts? Although the Republicans completed a clean sweep in the recent election, we are sceptical that this opens the door to additional fiscal stimulus. We do expect the original Trump tax cuts, which are... 3rd December 2024 · 9 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack US Housing Market Chart Pack (Nov. 24) Conditions for would-be homebuyers and sellers will not improve much in the near term, with mortgage rates set to remain around 7% through the first half of next year, before modest relief arrives... 2nd December 2024 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Another BRIC in the stronger dollar wall? President-elect Trump’s latest tariff threat, this time against the “BRICS” economies, is another early taste of his combative approach to trade policy and its potential impact on financial markets... 2nd December 2024 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Nov. 2024) The rebound in the ISM manufacturing index in November was as expected following recent hurricanes and the end of the Boeing strike, however the breakdown showed the sector is still stuck in a rut... 2nd December 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Trump’s tariff threat highlights challenges ahead US President-elect Donald Trump's pledge this week to levy a 25% tariff on all products imported from Canada is clearly more of a bargaining tool than a genuine threat. But it does raise the risk that... 29th November 2024 · 6 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada GDP (Q3 & Sep.) The 1.0% annualised gain in third-quarter GDP was not as bad as it looks, with most of the weakness due to a big drag from the volatile inventories component and the Bank of Canada likely to be... 29th November 2024 · 3 mins read
Climate Economics Monthly States to defy Trump; COP29 wrap-up; EV crossroads Trump’s election victory means that states will have to take the lead on climate policy to push the green transition forward, as progress on the federal level looks unlikely. Meanwhile, weakness in... 29th November 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update US import tariffs: your questions answered We held an online session on US import tariffs on 26th November. (See a recording here ). In this Update we answer the questions we were most asked. 29th November 2024 · 7 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Employment growth to rebound as disruptions unwind The reversal of weather- and strike-related disruptions leave us anticipating a 190,000 rise in nonfarm payrolls in November. We expect the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.1%, while wage growth... 27th November 2024 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly Trump tosses first social media hand grenade Here we go again. This week President-elect Donald Trump lobbed his first social media hand grenade since the election – threatening to impose a 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico if both countries didn... 27th November 2024 · 7 mins read
US Rapid Response Income & Spending (Oct. 2024) The 0.27% m/m rise in the core PCE deflator in October was a little lower than we feared based on the earlier CPI and PPI data, but still confirms that prices rose at an above-target rate for the... 27th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Event Drop-In: US climate policy under Trump: The IRA, Musk and 'drill, baby, drill' 1733324400 What will a second Trump presidency mean for the green transition? Should investors and companies expect an across-the-board rollback on regulation?
Commodities Update How to think about US tariffs on oil imports We are sceptical that US tariffs on oil imports will ever see the light of day. But if they did, they would probably result in lower oil production in Canada and Mexico, increased US gasoline prices... 27th November 2024 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response GDP (Q3 2nd Est), Durable Goods & Advance Economic Indicators (Oct) October’s income and spending data, due at 10am ET today, could also affect our estimate but, for now, the big drop back in goods imports in October means that we have forth-quarter GDP growth... 27th November 2024 · 2 mins read
