Africa Chart Pack A Multispeed Recovery GDP figures released this month showed that the economic fortunes of Africa’s largest economies diverged in Q2. South Africa’s economy rebounded after a brief recession at the turn of the year. While... 27th September 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenyan MPC holds rates again, but will ease in 2018 The Kenyan MPC kept rates unchanged today, but we expect that they will loosen policy next year as inflation falls towards the middle of the target range. 18th September 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Not out of the woods yet Most commentators hailed the Kenyan Supreme Court’s decision to annul the result of last month’s presidential election as a key win for the country’s democracy. This is, as yet, premature. The real... 12th September 2017 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Politics centre stage In a quiet month for economic news across frontier markets, politics has provided a regular stream of headlines. Investors were buoyed by results from Argentina’s primary elections which showed that... 31st August 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa: Politics grabs headlines as key economies strengthen Attention this month focused on unfolding political dramas in Africa’s key economies. The president of South Africa narrowly saw off another no-confidence vote, Kenya’s president was re-elected in a... 24th August 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Disputed result raises risk to economy Claims of tampering in yesterday’s Kenyan election have increased fears of a violent dispute. A crisis may still be avoided, but the risk of a deadly (and economically damaging) dispute is increasing. 9th August 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Election poses key risk to already slowing economy The risk of violence following next week’s election is rising. A repeat of the 2007-08 crisis would cut about 3.0%-pts off GDP growth in Q3; the total cost would depend on the length of the... 4th August 2017 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontier recovery still on track The recovery in frontier economies continued over the first half of this year. GDP growth averaged around 2.0% y/y in Q1, twice the rates seen in mid-2016. It would have been stronger still were it... 31st July 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update A strong month for local markets Most African currencies and equity markets gained a bit of ground in July. Mozambique – where debt worries deepened – was a rare exception. 31st July 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Major economies rebound, policy easing gains pace The latest data support our view that the recoveries in Sub-Saharan Africa’s big three economies will be stronger than most expect. Activity data in Nigeria, South Africa, and Angola all suggest that... 27th July 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa: Monetary policy easing cycle is getting into gear Policymakers across Africa are set to loosen monetary policy sooner and more dramatically than most think. We expect cuts in South Africa, Nigeria, Angola, Kenya, & elsewhere over the coming months. 19th July 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Rates on hold, next move will be a cut The CBK’s decision to keep its key rate on hold signals its willingness to look through the current period of above-target inflation. With inflation having now peaked, we expect that the next move... 17th July 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Institutional worries: Looking beyond South Africa Increased political criticism of the South African Reserve Bank has focused attention on threats to the country’s key economic institutions. But, as we’ve written before, we think that most of these... 13th July 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economic Outlook Recovery in top economies will drive African rebound We expect that growth in Sub-Saharan Africa will accelerate over the coming years as the three largest economies in the region – South Africa, Nigeria and Angola – recover from recent recessions... 7th July 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa: Key economies pick up in Q2 After a very poor start to the year, most of Africa’s larger economies bounced back at the start of Q2. South African activity data suggest that the region’s most industrialised economy returned to... 23rd June 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Inflation will add to economic headwinds in 2017 Kenyan inflation will remain above-target for the duration of 2017, prompting the CBK to hike its key policy rate from 10.00% to 10.50%. Elevated inflation and tighter policy will weigh on growth. 2nd June 2017 · 1 min read
