Frontier Markets Wrap Frontier recovery still on track The recovery in frontier economies continued over the first half of this year. GDP growth averaged around 2.0% y/y in Q1, twice the rates seen in mid-2016. It would have been stronger still were it... 31st July 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update A strong month for local markets Most African currencies and equity markets gained a bit of ground in July. Mozambique – where debt worries deepened – was a rare exception. 31st July 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Major economies rebound, policy easing gains pace The latest data support our view that the recoveries in Sub-Saharan Africa’s big three economies will be stronger than most expect. Activity data in Nigeria, South Africa, and Angola all suggest that... 27th July 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa: Monetary policy easing cycle is getting into gear Policymakers across Africa are set to loosen monetary policy sooner and more dramatically than most think. We expect cuts in South Africa, Nigeria, Angola, Kenya, & elsewhere over the coming months. 19th July 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Rates on hold, next move will be a cut The CBK’s decision to keep its key rate on hold signals its willingness to look through the current period of above-target inflation. With inflation having now peaked, we expect that the next move... 17th July 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Institutional worries: Looking beyond South Africa Increased political criticism of the South African Reserve Bank has focused attention on threats to the country’s key economic institutions. But, as we’ve written before, we think that most of these... 13th July 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economic Outlook Recovery in top economies will drive African rebound We expect that growth in Sub-Saharan Africa will accelerate over the coming years as the three largest economies in the region – South Africa, Nigeria and Angola – recover from recent recessions... 7th July 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa: Key economies pick up in Q2 After a very poor start to the year, most of Africa’s larger economies bounced back at the start of Q2. South African activity data suggest that the region’s most industrialised economy returned to... 23rd June 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Inflation will add to economic headwinds in 2017 Kenyan inflation will remain above-target for the duration of 2017, prompting the CBK to hike its key policy rate from 10.00% to 10.50%. Elevated inflation and tighter policy will weigh on growth. 2nd June 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa: Zuma, health concerns put politics centre stage Events over the past month have raised questions about the positions of the presidents of Sub-Saharan Africa’s three largest economies. Nigeria’s President Muhammadu Buhari missed a key speech... 30th May 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenyan statistics: Painting a flattering picture? The lead-up to Kenya’s general election in August is coinciding with rising scepticism in the country about the quality of official economic figures. In this Watch, we will lay out why we are... 16th May 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ghana doubles down on rate cuts, Kenya will follow in H2 The Bank of Ghana’s sharp rate cut suggests that policy loosening will be more aggressive than we’d previously thought. We’ve revised down our end of year rate forecast from 20.00% to 18.00%. The... 27th March 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa: Agriculture to drive growth in key economies The drought which hit a large part of Africa in 2015 and 2016 had a sizeable impact on economies in the South and East of the continent. Improving conditions will boost GDP growth in South Africa and... 10th March 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa: latest data confirm very weak growth in late 2016 Data published over the past month provided further evidence that economic growth in the region was very sluggish towards the end of last year. Q3 GDP figures did, admittedly, show that growth picked... 26th January 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Côte d’Ivoire: Political turbulence won’t knock economy off course Last week’s abortive army mutiny has focused attention on the political fragility of Côte d’Ivoire, which suffered a series of political and economic crises between 1993 and 2011. But we expect that... 13th January 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa: Disappointing end to a painful year The latest figures from across Africa suggest that most economies in the region continued to perform poorly at the end of 2016. Activity data from South Africa suggest that the region’s most... 15th December 2016 · 1 min read
