Africa Economics Weekly Ghana’s cocoa boom, core inflation still low in S. Africa Optimism is growing about a potential bumper cocoa harvest in Ghana, which could boost exports by more than 1% of GDP and presents an upside risk to our above-consensus growth forecasts. Meanwhile... 25th June 2021 · 5 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Third wave fears grow Worries about a third wave of COVID-19 in the region have intensified in the past month and the tightening of lockdown measures in some countries – most notably South Africa – will weigh on recoveries... 24th June 2021 · 13 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA tightens virus curbs, Ghana surprises with rate cut The recent tightening of containment measures to curb South Africa’s third virus wave will probably not be as damaging for the economy as earlier rounds of restrictions. Even so, the prospect of... 4th June 2021 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update Oil producers heading into deeper crises The plunge in global oil prices has raised the risk of much steeper contractions in output in African oil producers, sharper currency falls, sovereign debt restructurings and problems at local banks. 22nd April 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Ghana: Putting monetary easing on hold We think that a recent string of on-target inflation data and a less accommodating external environment will delay further interest rate cuts in Ghana. But monetary loosening will probably resume in... 13th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Ghana: Fiscal risks to return Given the government’s tendency to overspend in election years, we think that Ghana’s budget deficit will rise to about 8% of GDP next year. This will heighten investor concerns and put pressure on... 10th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Ghana’s cedi: Worst now behind us The dramatic weakening of Ghana’s cedi has been driven by a decline in investor sentiment, and does not reflect a deterioration in underlying macro fundamentals. Given strong growth and supportive... 19th March 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa rates: Kenya on hold, Ghana & Angola will keep cutting With inflation set to remain within target, we expect that Kenyan policymakers will leave their key rate on hold this year. Their Angolan and Ghanaian counterparts, however, will continue their easing... 28th January 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Buhari’s budget, Nigerian bank consolidation, Ghana GDP Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari laid out his 2019 budget proposal this week, emphasising that he plans to keep key policies unchanged if he is re-elected in February. A big bank merger in the... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ghana & Côte d’Ivoire: Cocoa cooperation remains limited The Ghanaian and Ivorian authorities’ failure to agree on a harmonised farm-gate cocoa price dampened hopes of a ‘Choc-OPEC’ that could effectively influence the global market. But collaboration in... 11th October 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly S. Africa employment, Nigeria targets imports again This week’s South African employment figures were less positive than they appear at first glance. Elsewhere, official economic growth slowed in Ghana in Q1. New poverty estimates caused a storm in... 29th June 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ghana: Balance sheet weaknesses ebbing After a difficult period, recent data show that Ghana’s balance sheet problems are now behind us. While problems in the banking sector have emerged, policymakers are taking the right steps to tackle... 8th June 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ghana: Easing cycle continues Today’s unexpectedly aggressive interest rate cut – which took the key rate to 18.00% – suggest that the current loosening cycle has further to run. We expect that the rate will fall to 16.00% by year... 26th March 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Political drama overshadows gradual recovery Attention over the past month has focused on political developments in South Africa and (to an admittedly lesser extent) Ethiopia. After refusing to heed repeated calls to reign, South African... 26th February 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack A Multispeed Recovery GDP figures released this month showed that the economic fortunes of Africa’s largest economies diverged in Q2. South Africa’s economy rebounded after a brief recession at the turn of the year. While... 27th September 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Not out of the woods yet Most commentators hailed the Kenyan Supreme Court’s decision to annul the result of last month’s presidential election as a key win for the country’s democracy. This is, as yet, premature. The real... 12th September 2017 · 1 min read
