Africa Economic Outlook

Recovery stuck in low gear

Sub-Saharan Africa will record a pick-up in growth over the coming years, helped by an improving external environment reducing the threat of further large currency falls as well as sovereign defaults...

27th March 2024 · 20 mins read

Africa Economics Focus

Will Africa unlock its potential?

Sub-Saharan Africa’s enormous demographic tailwind means the region will see the fastest GDP growth rates (4-5%) of any region between now and 2050. By the middle of the century, the region’s overall...

21st March 2024 · 22 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

South Africa metals and current account, Ghana debt

Reports suggest that metal producers in South Africa are contemplating cost-cutting measures on the back of the slump in global metals prices, presenting another headwind to the modest pick-up in...

8th March 2024 · 6 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

Judging the fiscal risks from upcoming EM elections

This year is a particularly busy one for elections in the emerging world, and these votes raise the risk of fiscal giveaways that worsen public debt dynamics. We think the risks are greatest in...

7th March 2024 · 3 mins read

Africa Chart Pack

Africa Chart Pack (Feb. 2024)

Economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is likely to pick up in 2024 as the external backdrop turns more favourable and, in some places, the drag from high inflation fades. Even so, tight fiscal and...

28th February 2024 · 0 mins read

Africa Economics Update

West Africa: cocoa prices to offset hit from poor harvest

The effects of El Niño will cause cocoa harvests in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana, which account for more than half of global output, to fall by around 20% this year. But the related surge in cocoa prices...

14th February 2024 · 3 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

Naira plunges, SA budget, Uganda/Kenya late cuts

The devaluation of the naira this week may be a sign that there’s fresh impetus to Nigeria’s policy shift, which had been stalling. A key test will come at the (long-overdue) central bank meeting...

2nd February 2024 · 6 mins read

Africa Chart Pack

Africa Chart Pack (Jan. 2024)

Economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is set to strengthen over 2024-25 as the external backdrop turns more favourable and, in some places, the drag from high inflation eases. But this boost will be...

31st January 2024 · 0 mins read

Africa Data Response

Ghana Interest Rate Announcement (Jan.)

The Bank of Ghana kicked off its easing cycle with a 100bp cut, to 29.00%, today and an improving balance of payments position alongside further falls in inflation mean that more cuts are on the cards...

29th January 2024 · 2 mins read

Africa Economics Update

Lessons from Africa’s sovereign debt restructurings

Ghana’s relatively quick progress in debt restructuring talks with creditors contrasts with the slow experiences of Ethiopia and Zambia. Much of this can be explained by the China’s role in...

24th January 2024 · 4 mins read

Africa Chart Pack

Africa Chart Pack (Dec. 2023)

Economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is set to strengthen over 2024-25 as the external backdrop turns more favourable and, in some places, the drag from high inflation eases. But growth will be...

18th December 2023 · 0 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

Ethiopia default, SA activity, Ghana inflation fall

Ethiopia’s sovereign default appears imminent after the government missed a coupon payment on its 2024 Eurobond this week. The prominence of Chinese and private bondholders in Africa continues to...

15th December 2023 · 5 mins read

Africa Economic Outlook

A tepid recovery

Economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is set to strengthen over 2024-25 as the external backdrop turns more favourable and, in most places, the drag from high inflation eases. But growth will be...

7th December 2023 · 21 mins read

Africa Chart Pack

Africa Chart Pack (Nov. 2023)

Our Africa Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Economic growth across Sub-Saharan Africa is likely to pick up in 2024, but a challenging external...

28th November 2023 · 1 min read

Africa Economics Update

Assessing public debt risks in Africa

In this Update, we present our sovereign debt heat map that provides a snapshot of debt risks across Sub-Saharan Africa. Government debt is still above pre-pandemic levels and most economies we cover...

10th November 2023 · 5 mins read