Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt FX revenues boost, Tunisia avoids default (for now) Egyptian officials appear to be hoping for a revival of the tourism sector as part of their strategy to improve the external position, but we still think that the currency will need to weaken further... 21st April 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Who holds frontier markets’ foreign debt? China and private bondholders have become increasingly important creditors to governments of many frontier markets, including some of those that are now finding themselves in debt distress. This is... 20th April 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egyptian pound, Kuwait political turmoil, Tunisia election The Egyptian pound has remained relatively stable since last month’s devaluation, but we think policymakers need to move to a more flexible exchange rate and allow the currency to weaken further... 7th April 2022 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Tunisia heading toward default Political developments and spillovers from the war in Ukraine have compounded concerns over Tunisia’s public finances and cemented our view that the government will default sooner rather than later... 6th April 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack External strains building in North Africa The Gulf stands to benefit from the war in Ukraine. Oil output is likely to be raised more quickly, while higher energy prices will boost export revenues by around 10% of GDP this year, providing some... 30th March 2022 · 15 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Regional divergence to widen on back of Ukraine war The spillovers from the war in Ukraine will further drive divergence in economic growth across the Middle East and North Africa. The Gulf economies stand to benefit as oil production is likely to be... 23rd March 2022 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Russian energy sanctions, non-Gulf external strains build The US and UK embargoes on Russian energy exports could open the door for the Gulf countries to raise oil production more quickly and implement their long-term strategies of capturing market share... 10th March 2022 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Energy markets present upside risk to the Gulf The Gulf economies are key beneficiaries from the rise in energy prices caused by the Russia-Ukraine crisis. On an annualised basis, oil at $100pb would increase hydrocarbon export revenues by 7-10%... 28th February 2022 · 15 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly What does the Russia-Ukraine crisis mean for MENA? This morning Russia has launched an invasion of Ukraine and, for oil producers in the Gulf, the further rise in oil prices is positive for their economies. But for others in the region, the... 24th February 2022 · 5 mins read
Frontier Markets Wrap Sovereign debt risks becoming more acute Sovereign dollar bond spreads have widened significantly in several Frontiers over the past couple of months, driven largely by country-specific factors. There are reasons to be hopeful that outright... 3rd February 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Global monetary tightening a challenge for MENA Central banks in the Gulf will have to raise interest rates in line with the Fed (which we expect to hike four times both this year and next) by virtue of their dollar pegs, adding to headwinds facing... 28th January 2022 · 11 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Gulf to drive a pick-up in regional growth in 2022 The recovery across the Middle East and North Africa is likely to gather pace this year, due in large part to the Gulf where rising oil output will cause GDP growth to pick up to rates well above... 25th January 2022 · 25 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Oil and Gulf fiscal policy, Egypt joins GBI-EM, Tunisia We think that the recent rally in oil prices is likely to be short lived and, as prices fall back, the window for governments in the Gulf to loosen fiscal policy will shut. Elsewhere, Egypt’s... 13th January 2022 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What to expect in MENA in 2022 We think that GDP growth in the Gulf will be stronger than most expect this year on the back of rising oil output. Elsewhere, we expect a larger depreciation of the Egyptian pound than most anticipate... 12th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi budget, Fed and the Gulf, Tunisian politics Saudi Arabia’s 2022 Budget revealed that the government plans to cut spending in order to run a budget surplus for the first time since 2013. But the true fiscal stance is being muddied by an... 16th December 2021 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Gulf governments to keep fiscal policy tight Governments across the Gulf have begun to unveil their 2022 budgets and tight fiscal policy remains the order of the day. Saudi Arabia outlined a 6% cut in spending next year that is expected to push... 15th December 2021 · 14 mins read