Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Gulf growth slowing The flash Q1 GDP figures for Saudi Arabia showed the economy grew at its weakest pace in two years at the start of 2023, reflecting the cut in oil production in line with the OPEC+ decision in October... 24th May 2023 · 12 mins read
Frontier Markets Wrap Debt risks: the not so bad, the bad and the ugly Sovereign debt risks are back in focus as some frontiers appear to be drifting closer to default. We remain most concerned about default risks in Tunisia and Pakistan, particularly in light of this... 12th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The Gulf: notes from the ground We were in the Gulf last week visiting clients and this Update takes stock of the key talking points that emerged, from a sense of optimism surrounding the Gulf economies to despair and fear regarding... 11th May 2023 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Oil prices, Tunisia-IMF, Egypt default concerns The fall in oil prices this week has taken them to a level at which Saudi Arabia will be running a budget deficit and may have closed the door on the prospect of looser fiscal policy in the Gulf. It... 4th May 2023 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack IMF deals in choppy waters Balance of payments strains have prompted Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia to turn to the IMF over the past six months or so, but agreements in Egypt and Tunisia are faltering. The IMF postponed its first... 26th April 2023 · 12 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Aramco-PIF, COP28, Tunisia politics, Black Sea grain The latest transfer of a 4% stake in Aramco by the Saudi government to the Public Investment Fund will help meet the Kingdom meet its Vision 2030 goals, but it will not reduce the state’s dependency... 20th April 2023 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egyptian inflation, Tunisia-IMF, end to the Yemen war? Headline inflation in Egypt accelerated to its fastest pace since mid-2017 last month and, while there are tentative signs that it could be near its peak, the risk of another devaluation would push it... 13th April 2023 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Water strains, Saudi-China relations, CBE meeting Tunisia and Morocco are in the midst of severe droughts that could weigh on activity in the key agricultural and tourism sectors, and could possibly stoke social unrest. Elsewhere, Saudi Arabia... 30th March 2023 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook MENA set for a much weaker 2023 Growth across the Middle East and North Africa is set to slow sharply, and by more than most expect, in 2023. IMF deals will help to contain balance of payments strains in the non-Gulf economies but... 30th March 2023 · 25 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Is the door closing for fiscal loosening in the Gulf? One of the main channels through which the Gulf countries are exposed to worries about the health of the global banking system in through energy markets, with the price of Brent crude falling by 13%... 24th March 2023 · 11 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+, Egypt policymaking, Tunisia-World Bank Tensions within OPEC+ over oil policy appear to be escalating amid rumours that the UAE is, once again, thinking about leaving the group. Ultimately, we think the Gulf states will ramp up oil output... 9th March 2023 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Gulf slowdown underway After a stellar performance for most of 2022, the Gulf economies are slowing. Primarily, that has reflected the impact of oil production cuts agreed with the rest of OPEC+ which is weighing on growth... 23rd February 2023 · 14 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Dubai GRE debts, Tunisia’s IMF deal, Saudi real estate Dubai’s economic backdrop has improved markedly in the past year or so and has provided government-related entities with room to breathe in the face of large debt repayments this year, including a $5... 16th February 2023 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Tunisia: large fall in the dinar lies in store Tunisia’s fragile balance of payments of position has deteriorated further over the past year and the dinar appears increasingly overvalued. We think that the currency needs to fall by at least 30%... 8th February 2023 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Tunisian debt, Morocco & CBAM, Jordan protests The result of parliamentary elections in Tunisia last weekend will probably strengthen President Saied’s ability to pass laws, but could also dissuade the IMF from formally approving a financing... 22nd December 2022 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Door still open for fiscal loosening in the Gulf The slide in the price of oil since November has a little further to go in early 2023 and, while we think prices will recover later in the year, hydrocarbon revenues in the Gulf will be lower than... 21st December 2022 · 10 mins read
