Tunisia

Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook

GDP growth pick-up on a fragile footing

Growth in the Gulf economies is likely to pick up in the coming quarters, particularly as oil output starts to rise from October. We think non-oil sectors will continue to grow strongly. But the...

18th June 2024 20 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack

Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (May 2024)

Low oil output in the Gulf has constrained economic growth so far this year and the upcoming OPEC+ meeting will prove pivotal to the outlook over the rest of this year. Elsewhere in Middle East and...

29th May 2024 1 min read

Frontier Markets Wrap

Sovereign bond spreads: from too high to too low?

The sharp drop in frontier market sovereign dollar bond spreads this year has caught many by surprise. We think there’s a case that the bond rally may have gone too far in Argentina, Ecuador and...

24th May 2024 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Saudi gigaproject dilemma, Ras el-Hekma boost, Tunisia

Comments from Saudi Arabia’s Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan this week add to the evidence that spending on gigaprojects may be curtailed. But his comments pinning this on concerns about...

16th May 2024 7 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack

Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (Apr. 2024)

The escalation of the conflict between Israel and Iran has largely been shrugged off by the oil market and risk premia in the Gulf remain low. Even so, growth will remain weak in the Gulf this year...

24th April 2024 1 min read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

EM sovereign default risks still high in a few places

The incidence of sovereign debt distress has continued to decline across the emerging world in recent weeks, driven mainly by an improvement in global risk appetite and the corresponding narrowing of...

10th April 2024 3 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack

Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (Mar. 2024)

The past month has seen Egypt’s economic crisis turn around with the devaluation of the pound, aggressive interest rate hike, and unlocking of a new IMF deal. There have been false dawns before, but...

27th March 2024 1 min read

Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook

A soft 2024, but faster growth around the corner

Low oil output in the Gulf will constrain GDP growth over the first half of this year. But as this reverses, growth will pick up and by more than most expect. Elsewhere in Middle East and North Africa...

25th March 2024 20 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack

Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (Feb. 2024)

Our Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Economic growth in the Middle East and North Africa will strengthen a little...

26th February 2024 1 min read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Tunisia’s unorthodox policy shift, Egypt’s Unified Budget Act

While Tunisia's government managed to avert default this week by meeting a Eurobond repayment, it only did so by draining already low FX reserves. With the new central bank governor set to take...

22nd February 2024 6 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Israel-Hamas spillovers weigh on non-Gulf economies

The main spillover to the global economy, so far, from the Israel-Hamas conflict has been major disruptions to shipping, but there has been a bigger and broader economic impact in the MENA region...

20th February 2024 5 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

Frontier sovereign debt distress still high

While the overall incidence of sovereign debt distress in the emerging world has fallen back since last year, sovereign debt distress in frontier markets hasn’t. And, if anything, things have taken a...

7th February 2024 3 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Aramco’s plans, Jordan and regional conflict, Tunisia’s crisis

Saudi Arabia’s government this week directed the state oil giant Aramco to suspend plans to raise oil production capacity, but this won’t necessarily stop Aramco from ramping up actual output in the...

1st February 2024 8 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack

Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (Jan. 2024)

30th January 2024 1 min read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Is Tunisia looking down the barrel of a sovereign default?

Tunisia’s government faces a large debt repayment next month and, while it should be able to make that, there is still a lot of debt coming due in the next twelve months. President Saied’s...

24th January 2024 3 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack

Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (Dec. 2023)

18th December 2023 1 min read