Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) After a sharp slowdown this year, GDP growth across the Middle East and North Africa will improve in 2024 as OPEC+ starts to raise its output quotas and high oil prices allow the Gulf economies to... 24th October 2023 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Israel-Hamas and Egypt, Qatar LNG, Saudi inflation Reports over the past week suggest that Egypt may be trying to leverage its role in the Israel-Gaza conflict to receive financial support. However, this would not address the fundamental issues behind... 19th October 2023 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Where do things stand in Egypt? It has been almost a year since Egypt reached a staff-level agreement with the IMF, but progress on key policies that form part of the program has stalled. The pound has been a de-facto peg since... 17th October 2023 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update A fresh look at Egypt’s external position Despite a marked improvement in Egypt’s current account deficit, the pound’s de-facto peg is deterring critical capital inflows and adding to concerns over large external financing needs. A fresh... 10th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Sep. 2023) Egypt’s headline inflation rate picked up from 37.4% y/y in August to a fresh multi-decade high of 38.0% y/y in September but we think that, even with another devaluation of the pound on the horizon... 10th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt election and UAE swap line, OPEC+, Saudi labour Egypt’s upcoming election in December has led to policy paralysis, particularly around the exchange rate. The currency swap line opened with the UAE this week appears aimed at bolstering resources to... 5th October 2023 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response PMIs (Sep. 23) The September release of PMIs for the Middle East and North Africa showed that activity in non-oil private sectors in the Gulf economies remained strong up at the end of Q3, and this is likely to... 3rd October 2023 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt election, Dubai debts, CE Spotlight The confirmation that Egypt’s presidential election has been moved forward to December is likely to keep the policy shift toward economic orthodoxy on pause for the time being. Our best guess now is... 28th September 2023 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack (Sep. 23) After a sharp slowdown this year, GDP growth across the Middle East and North Africa will improve in 2024 as OPEC+ starts to raise its output quotas and high oil prices allow the Gulf economies to... 28th September 2023 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Growth prospects for 2024 improving After a sharp slowdown this year, GDP growth across the Middle East and North Africa will improve in 2024 as OPEC+ starts to raise its output quotas and high oil prices allow the Gulf economies to... 25th September 2023 · 20 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt’s presidential election, GCC debt, Morocco-IMF Speculation is mounting that Egypt may bring forward its presidential election, which would go some way towards explaining policy paralysis around the pound. If this persists and a de facto peg is... 21st September 2023 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Addressing key questions from our Egypt drop-in Yesterday, we hosted a Drop-in webinar taking a closer look at the state of play in Egypt and whether the country can get its IMF deal back of track. You can view on-demand here. This Update addresses... 14th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt inflation and rates, Morocco quake, new oil f’casts The further rise in inflation in August means that the Central Bank of Egypt will probably raise interest rates again next week, but investors (and the IMF) will be paying more attention to any news... 14th September 2023 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi oil output cut, another delay to Egypt’s IMF review? Saudi Arabia announced it will roll over its additional voluntary 1mn bpd oil output cut until the end of the year, which we think will push the economy into a sharp contraction over the second half... 7th September 2023 · 9 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response PMIs (Aug. 23) August’s batch of PMIs for the region showed that activity in non-oil private sectors in the Gulf eased, but that activity remained strong. In contrast, Egypt’s PMI remained below the 50-mark and the... 5th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly SAMA drawdown, Saudi real estate, Egypt industry plans The drop in the Saudi central bank’s foreign assets to a 14-year low in July caused some concern this week, but we suspect this reflects funds being recycled to the Public Investment Fund rather than... 31st August 2023 · 6 mins read
