Middle East & North Africa Economics Update In spite of recent plans, IMF help is still needed in Egypt With the government committed to safeguarding the pound and foreign funding yet to materialise, Egypt looks set to turn to its expatriates to raise debt finance. But while this would help capital... 15th February 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Jan.) Even though Egyptian inflation fell in January, the recent slump in foreign currency reserves to dangerously low levels may leave the central bank with no choice but to hike rates next month. 9th February 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The 'Arab Spring' one year on This Saturday marks a year since the end of Hosni Mubarak’s three-decade reign over Egypt. Only a few weeks before that, Tunisia’s revolution ended with the toppling of the Ben Ali regime. Since then... 8th February 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Middle East Markets Monitor (Feb.) The Arab world’s markets have underperformed in January. The exception is Egyptian stocks, which are up by 25% since the beginning of the year. However, we think that Egypt’s recovery is unlikely to... 7th February 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: interest rate unchanged, but further hikes seem likely Today’s decision to keep the benchmark rate unchanged at 9.25% in a sign that Egypt’s central bank is increasingly confident that loans from the IMF and elsewhere will materialise soon. Indeed, the... 2nd February 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Syria: A prolonged crisis is on the cards The Arab League’s uncharacteristically unified position on Syria last year has quickly reversed. While some countries, led by the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), favour a tough stance, others... 25th January 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s markets: strong start to 2012 may not be sustained On the back of a smooth start to the new parliament, Egyptian equities have jumped by 5.4% so far this week, and CDS premia have fallen by around 70 basis points. However, since last year’s revolution... 24th January 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Gulf markets hit by Iran tensions The escalation of tensions with Iran has meant that financial markets in the Gulf have underperformed those in the rest of the emerging world so far this year. While the MSCI emerging market equity... 23rd January 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s request from the IMF will not be enough Egypt’s decision to request a $3.2 billion stand-by facility from the IMF will not be enough to cover its external funding needs in 2012. Instead, it will need at least double that amount to avoid a... 17th January 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update IMF will need to address Egypt's external funding problems The Egyptian government’s decision to resume negotiations with the IMF is good news. The proposed $3 billion facility would help plug a gaping hole in the budget. But it would not be sufficient to... 12th January 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Dec.) The pick-up in Egypt’s headline inflation in December has increased the likelihood of another rate hike when the central bank’s monetary policy committee (MPC) meets in February. 10th January 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Oil-importers will have no room for fiscal manoeuvre in 2012 The increase in the costs of food and fuel subsidies, and public sector salaries, has left most oil-importers in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) with no room to counteract the impact of a... 9th January 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Clouds gather over North Africa Successful elections in Tunisia and Morocco, and initially in Egypt, have been overshadowed by a marked deterioration in economic conditions in North Africa. Indeed, Egypt is at a growing risk of a... 20th December 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s GDP recovers but challenging times ahead Today’s reports that Egypt’s GDP grew by 0.5% y/y in the third quarter suggest that the economy has now recovered most of the initial losses in output brought about by the social unrest. However... 15th December 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: teetering on the edge of a full-blown economic crisis The ruling Supreme Council of the Armed Forces’ (SCAF) dithering over securing external financial assistance has left Egypt teetering on the edge of a full-blown economic crisis. The central bank’s... 7th December 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Financing risk, not Islamist win, is the greatest threat in Egypt Although the official results from Egypt’s first round of elections have not yet been released, it is almost certain that the Freedom and Justice party (the political arm of the Muslim Brotherhood)... 1st December 2011 · 1 min read
