Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Raising deposit rates is not enough to support the Egyptian pound The decision by privately-owned banks in Egypt to raise deposit rates by around two percentage points may slow the rate of dollarization of resident accounts, which could help the central bank in its... 15th November 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: Inflation collapsing but no room for near-term rate cuts Although Egyptian inflation fell to its slowest rate for 4 years in October, currency concerns continue to prevent a near-term cut in interest rates. Indeed, if there is any rate change before the end... 10th November 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: living on borrowed time We estimate that the Central Bank of Egypt has sufficient FX reserves to maintain its current rate of intervention in the foreign exchange markets until early next year. Assuming this month’s... 8th November 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Employment schemes in the GCC: silver bullet or damp squib? The recent moves by the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) to increase the participation of their citizens in the private sector jobs market, notably Saudi Arabia’s Nitiqat scheme, are... 3rd November 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Financing risks rise in the resource-poor countries The combination of deepening problems in advanced economies and the legacy of political unrest earlier this year has heightened the risk of fiscal and balance of payments crises in the resource-poor... 2nd November 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update After Gaddafi, what next for the ‘Arab Spring’? The fact that there was no market reaction to the death of Libya’s former leader, Muammar Gaddafi, is no surprise. That said, today’s events could reduce political risks in the Middle East and North... 21st October 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Oil-rich states well prepared to face the global crisis The drop in PMIs in Saudi Arabia and the UAE provide the first signs that the Gulf States are being hit by the on-going problems in the developed world. But the oil-rich countries have strong balance... 20th October 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian rates could be cut next year There were no surprises from Egypt’s Central Bank today as the benchmark interest rate was left unchanged at 8.25%. Although the economy is still weak, and core inflation in single digits, the threat... 14th October 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Resource-poor countries most at risk from a global crisis The global economic crisis will affect the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region through a deterioration in world trade, falls in commodity prices and a drop in capital inflows. We expect that... 14th October 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Sep.) September’s data show that a sharp fall in food price inflation helped to offset a rise in Egypt’s house price inflation. Accordingly, headline inflation fell for the fourth consecutive month... 11th October 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update IMF aid crucial to heading off an external financing crisis North Africa’s hefty external financing requirements, coupled with turmoil in the global financial markets, have increased the risk that the region could be hit by a balance of payments crisis... 7th October 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Will the 'Arab Spring' bring economic transformation? The recent political turmoil, the so-called ‘Arab Spring’, could ultimately lead to a marked acceleration in economic growth for some parts of the Arab World. Egypt, Morocco and, to a lesser extent... 4th October 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Growth forecasts cut for 2012 Following recent downward revisions to our forecasts for growth across the developed and emerging markets, we have also cut our forecasts for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. We now... 30th September 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack The Arab World’s banks can weather the global crisis The Arab World’s banks are better prepared to face any fallout from the global sovereign debt problems than they were during the financial crisis in 2008. Back then, the region’s financial... 21st September 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt needs the IMF to avoid an external funding crisis Fresh concerns that Egypt could face a fiscal and external funding crisis over the next three years have pushed the country back to the IMF. In June, Egypt turned its back on offers of help from... 16th September 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Aug.) August’s data show that a sharp fall in food price inflation helped to push headline inflation in Egypt down to its lowest level since the end of 2007. Core inflation also fell. But, due to concerns... 13th September 2011 · 1 min read
