Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Egypt devaluation: causes and likely consequences We think that a devaluation of the Egyptian pound is more likely than not, even if the government reaches an agreement with the IMF this month. The pound appears to be overvalued by around 15% to 25%... 5th April 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt takes a turn for the worse Another month, another fall in Egypt’s foreign currency reserves. Admittedly, the pace of decline appears to be easing. But with rising tensions between the interim government, the Muslim Brotherhood... 2nd April 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s rates on hold, awaiting IMF deal Egypt’s Central Bank (CBE) kept interests rates on hold today. And although it looks like the CBE is taking small steps towards easing policy, much now hinges on whether an IMF deal can be agreed. If... 22nd March 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Crunch time for Egypt Egypt’s talks this week with the IMF over a $3.2 billion package could prove to be a defining moment in the post-Mubarak era. With FX reserves now at dangerously low levels, external financing is... 20th March 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt & the IMF: Five key questions An IMF team has arrived in Cairo for talks, due to start today, on a $3.2bn loan facility for Egypt. In this Update we answer five key questions that will determine how events are likely to play out... 19th March 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Middle East Markets Monitor (Mar.) The performance of equity markets across the Arab world has diverged since the beginning of the year. Stock markets in Egypt, Dubai and Saudi outperfromed the rest of the region and indeed the MSCI... 13th March 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Inflationary pressures mounting in Saudi Arabia and Egypt In contrast to other regions, February’s inflation data from Saudi Arabia and Egypt show that price pressures are mounting. In Saudi, strong domestic demand and favourable base effects are largely to... 12th March 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update North Africa’s new parliaments at risk of losing sight of economy A lack of policy direction in North Africa is jeopardising the already-sluggish economic recovery. Unemployment has reached record highs in both Egypt and Tunisia, fiscal and external positions are... 8th March 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s central bank is running out of ammunition At first glance, today’s data showing that the pace of decline in Egypt’s foreign currency reserves slowed last month is good news. Indeed, Egyptian markets have been buoyed by hopes that the economy... 5th March 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s confused policy will hamper its recovery Recent comments from Saudi Arabia that its promises of financial aid to Egypt have been held back by the latter are at odds with earlier remarks from the Egyptian Prime Minister which lambasted... 1st March 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack High oil prices to swell Gulf coffers The jump in oil prices over the past month has sharpened the divide between the relatively bright outlook for the Middle East’s resource-rich countries, and the less rosy outlook for its resource-poor... 23rd February 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook 'Arab Spring' puts the focus on near-term divergence It is becoming clear that one year on from the start of the ‘Arab Spring’ several countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region are facing difficult transitions. Most of these are in... 16th February 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus How well will growth in emerging economies hold up? Emerging Asia and Latin America should continue to grow relatively fast even if the euro-zone slides into prolonged recession, as long as the US avoids the same fate. The outlook for emerging Europe... 16th February 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update In spite of recent plans, IMF help is still needed in Egypt With the government committed to safeguarding the pound and foreign funding yet to materialise, Egypt looks set to turn to its expatriates to raise debt finance. But while this would help capital... 15th February 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Jan.) Even though Egyptian inflation fell in January, the recent slump in foreign currency reserves to dangerously low levels may leave the central bank with no choice but to hike rates next month. 9th February 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The 'Arab Spring' one year on This Saturday marks a year since the end of Hosni Mubarak’s three-decade reign over Egypt. Only a few weeks before that, Tunisia’s revolution ended with the toppling of the Ben Ali regime. Since then... 8th February 2012 · 1 min read
