Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Middle East Markets Monitor (Jan.) The Egyptian pound has fallen sharply over the past month after the Central Bank of Egypt loosened its grip on the currency. We think the pound could fall by a further 10-15% to around 7.5/US$... 29th January 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack All eyes on how far Egyptian pound will fall Although Egypt’s constitutional crisis has eased, the currency is now presenting a fresh cause for concern. Our central view remains that Egypt will secure an IMF deal which, combined with a return of... 24th January 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The 'Arab Spring' - two years on Two years have passed since the start of the ‘Arab Spring’ and the economic progress that many hoped for at the time still hasn’t materialised. But while the transition process is likely to remain... 21st January 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Fiscal deficits squeezing investment in resource-poor economies With all eyes on Egypt’s currency crisis, it’s easy to forget the fiscal crisis hitting the resource-poor Arab countries at the same time. Gaping budget deficits are squeezing out investment and... 16th January 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian inflation to rise - but not just because of the pound Fears that the recent fall in the Egyptian pound will lead to a sharp rise in inflation are overplayed. Instead, tax hikes and subsidy cuts are likely to have a much greater impact on headline... 15th January 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Constitutional crisis weighs on Egyptian economy The latest PMI data suggest that Egypt’s constitutional crisis took a heavy toll on the economy at the end of last year. By contrast, activity in the Gulf economies is holding up well, buoyed by... 9th January 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How far and how quickly will the Egyptian pound fall? With the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) loosening its grip on the pound, the key question is whether the authorities will succeed in overseeing an “orderly” devaluation of the currency. If an IMF deal... 8th January 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Europe lagging behind in EM recovery Emerging market manufacturing grew at its fastest pace in more than 18 months in December, according to the latest PMI data. However, the improvement in performance was concentrated in Asia and Latin... 3rd January 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian pound has further to fall The Egyptian central bank appears to have shifted from keeping the pound pegged to the dollar to allowing a relatively gradual devaluation. We think this process has further to run and the pound could... 2nd January 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Constitutional crisis keeps Egypt in the headlines Egypt’s constitutional crisis continues to cast a dark shadow over the economy. Admittedly, the vote on the new draft constitution passed off more smoothly than might have been expected. But the... 19th December 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa to outperform in 2013 Growth across sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has held up relatively well in the last few months of 2012. This is despite a weak global backdrop and the continued sluggish performance of South Africa, the... 18th December 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook A region of two halves The Middle East remains a region of two halves. On the one hand, the Gulf economies are in good shape and look well placed to weather what is likely to be a challenging year ahead for the world... 17th December 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Political turmoil to prevent Egypt from easing Egypt’s deepening political crisis has put paid to any hopes of policy easing, in the very near-term at least. Indeed, if things stay as they are, we wouldn’t be surprised if the central bank is... 6th December 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian pound being supported at unsustainable levels President Morsi’s decision to grant himself sweeping powers has thrown Egypt into a constitutional crisis, the outcome of which is highly uncertain and will frame the near-term outlook for the economy... 29th November 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Egypt: two steps forward, one step back It’s been a mixed month for Egypt’s post-revolution economy. The good news is that a $4.8bn programme with the IMF has been agreed at a staff level, paving the way for formal approval by the Fund’s... 26th November 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update First thoughts on Egypt's IMF programme News that Egypt’s government has reached a “staff-level” agreement with the IMF on a $4.8bn programme has greatly reduced the risk of a balance of payments crisis in the country. Radical policy... 20th November 2012 · 1 min read
