Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Renewed security concerns to hit Egypt’s tourism sector Mounting evidence that the Russian plane crash in Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula was caused by a bomb planted by an affiliate of Islamic State is almost inevitably going to deal a hammer blow to Egypt’s... 9th November 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Central Bank of Egypt holds rates as external concerns return A renewed focus on Egypt’s external position appears to have been the main reason why the central bank kept the benchmark overnight deposit rate unchanged at 8.75% today, rather than lower rates. The... 29th October 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s central bank loosens grip on pound, further falls likely For the third time this year the Central Bank of Egypt has loosened its grip on the pound and the currency is likely to fall further over the coming days. We expect it to reach 8.25/US$ by the end of... 19th October 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Sep.) The jump in Egyptian inflation to 9.2% y/y in September was driven almost entirely by a rise in the volatile food component. While we do expect inflation to fall back again, last month’s data mean an... 8th October 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Central Bank of Egypt holds rates amid Fed uncertainty The decision by the Egyptian central bank (CBE) to keep its benchmark overnight deposit rate unchanged at 8.75% today was probably a close call and we suspect that policymakers were swayed from... 17th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth lacklustre, but not collapsing EM growth edged down further in June. But for all the gloom in the headlines, we see no sign of the collapse some are talking about. In particular, in China, after a weak start to the year, conditions... 27th August 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Jul.) The sharp fall in Egyptian inflation to a 13-month low of 8.4% y/y in July was due toboth lower food inflation and the unwinding of last year’s energy price hikes. Withinflation now back in single... 10th August 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How big a deal is the new Suez Canal for Egypt? The new Suez Canal, due to be inaugurated this week, could in theory bring major economic benefits to the Egyptian economy. However, the government’s projections appear to be based on implausibly... 3rd August 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf markets weather fall in oil prices Equity markets in the Gulf have performed better than might have been expected this month, given the fresh fall in global oil prices. Meanwhile, Egyptian stocks,bonds and the currency have all fared... 28th July 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s gas sector reaches a turning point This week’s announcement that Italian energy group Eni has discovered gas reserves in the Nile Delta provides the first concrete evidence that the Egyptian government’s energy reforms are starting to... 23rd July 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s government wavering on fiscal consolidation Egypt’s public finances are gradually improving, but the recent watering down of tax and spending measures combined with the relatively unambitious targets set out in a recent draft budget has raised... 24th June 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Foreign investment into Egypt showing signs of a revival The slowdown in Egypt’s economy since the start of the year has been disappointing, but there are at least encouraging signs that the government’s reform programme is starting to bear fruit. Indeed... 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Gulf countries weathering the storm, but growth to weaken The Gulf economies have weathered the storm created by low oil prices relatively well this year, with foreign exchange reserves having been drawn down to sustain spending. Large savings mean that this... 15th June 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Central Bank of Egypt holds rates as inflation remains high The Central Bank of Egypt left interest rates unchanged today, but we expect a rate cut later in the year, despite the recent pick-up in inflation. 11th June 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Optimism over opening up of Saudi’s stock market seems overdone The move by Saudi Arabia to open up its stock market to foreign investors from next week is a step in the right direction. But, as we explain in this Watch, we think some of the optimism about its... 10th June 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (May) The jump in Egyptian inflation to 13.1% y/y in May was almost entirely driven a sharp rise in food inflation and, as a result, we don’t expect it to have an impact on the MPC’s rate decision tomorrow... 10th June 2015 · 1 min read
