Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: what to make of the pound’s recent rally? Weaker import demand and a pick-up in foreign investment have pushed the Egyptian pound up by 15% against the US dollar in the past couple of weeks, and we think the rally may have a little further to... 14th February 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Jan.) The rise in Egyptian inflation in January to a 30-year high of 28.1% y/y makes it even more likely that the central bank will raise interest rates at its monetary policy meeting on Thursday. We now... 13th February 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Investors give Egypt the thumbs up Egypt’s recent economic reforms received a warm welcome from investors earlier this month, as the country successfully issued US$4bn of international bonds. The sale was almost double the amount that... 26th January 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: will the government’s fiscal reforms be enough? The big fiscal squeeze that the Egyptian government has signed up for as part of its IMF deal will, if fully implemented, bring the debt ratio down. However, the authorities are likely to struggle to... 26th January 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Key takeaways from the IMF’s Staff Report on Egypt The conditions attached to Egypt’s IMF loan, details of which were released earlier today, suggest that a significant fiscal squeeze is in the pipeline this year, while monetary policy will remain... 18th January 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian inflation has further to rise Yesterday’s inflation data from Egypt made for grim reading and we think the headline rate is likely to peak at around 27% in the coming months, prompting further interest rate hikes. Price pressures... 11th January 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Dec.) The 50% drop in the pound against the US dollar and fresh subsidy cuts pushed Egyptian inflation up further last month to its second-highest rate in a quarter of a century. With inflation likely to... 10th January 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Dec.) December’s batch of PMI data suggest that the Gulf economies ended 2016 on a brighter note, supported by a boost sentiment from higher oil prices and signs that the worst of the drag from fiscal... 4th January 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf financial markets find support from higher oil prices The rise in oil prices following the recent OPEC deal to cut output has supported financial markets across the Gulf over the past month. Stock markets have perked up and spreads of dollar bonds over... 15th December 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Nov.) Egyptian inflation surged to 19.4% y/y in November following the float and subsequent 50% drop in the pound against the US dollar, as well as fresh subsidy cuts. Inflation looks set to rise even... 8th December 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Nov.) The small drop in Egypt’s PMI last month suggests that the economy hasn’t deteriorated significantly following the pound’s float and subsequent 50% fall against the US dollar. But with inflation set... 5th December 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi interbank rates edge lower, but will rise again soon Interbank interest rates in Saudi Arabia have edged down over the past month as investor sentiment towards the Kingdom has improved and policy moves have helped to ease liquidity constraints at banks... 29th November 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update President Trump and the implications for the Middle East Two weeks on from Donald Trump’s victory in the US Presidential election and we’re starting to get a sense of the likely shape and priorities of his administration. The inherent contradictions in Mr... 23rd November 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s central bank stands pat, but further rate hikes likely Today’s decision by Egypt’s central bank to keep its key interest unchanged at 14.75% is probably a pause in the tightening cycle. We think the fall in the pound since it was floated will push... 17th November 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How a weaker pound will benefit Egypt’s economy The sharp fall in the Egyptian pound since it was floated earlier this month should help to narrow the country’s current account deficit and support a pick-up in private capital inflows. If backed up... 15th November 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Oct.) Egyptian inflation dipped for a second consecutive month in October. But the 45% fall in the pound against the US dollar over the past week, as well as additional fuel subsidy cuts, means inflation is... 10th November 2016 · 1 min read
