Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Strains in Qatar’s markets ease There is growing evidence that the diplomatic crisis between Qatar and regional powers has (at least temporarily) hurt Qatar’s economy, but there are also signs that tensions in the country’s... 31st July 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Upward pressure on Egyptian pound likely to wane Egypt’s central bank appears to have been intervening in the foreign exchange market to prevent the pound from strengthening, but we think the forces putting upward pressure on the currency will soon... 26th July 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Are we witnessing the end of the GCC? A threat by regional powers to expel Qatar from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) has sparked fears that the group could be disbanded. A complete breakup of the GCC seems highly unlikely but, even if... 12th July 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Jun.) Egyptian inflation inched up to 29.8% y/y in June and recent subsidy cuts will cause it to rise a bit further in the next few months. Even so, as the effects of last year’s sharp drop in the pound... 10th July 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt hikes rates but hints at end of tightening cycle The Egyptian central bank’s surprise decision late last night to hike its benchmark overnight deposit rate by 200bp, to 18.75%, was largely a response to recently-announced subsidy cuts, which will... 7th July 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Regional slowdown approaching a trough The slowdown in the Middle East and North Africa should bottom out in the second half of this year and growth is likely to strengthen in 2018-19. In the Gulf, the hit to headline GDP growth from OPEC... 5th July 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (May) The drop in Egyptian inflation in May supports our view that last month’s surprise interest rate hike will be a one-off. That said, rate cuts are unlikely to come on to the agenda until the turn of... 8th June 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s rate hike likely to be a one-off The Egyptian central bank’s surprise decision late last night to hike its benchmark interest rate by 200bp, to 16.75%, appears to the result of pressure from the IMF. The move is likely to be a one... 22nd May 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s business climate improving, but challenges remain Egypt’s new investment law is a positive step towards improving the dire business environment. But greater efforts, particularly in raising domestic savings, are needed if investment is to reach the... 16th May 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Apr.) The further rise in Egyptian inflation last month, to 31.5% y/y, was driven entirely by stronger food price pressures. We think inflation is now close to a peak and today’s figures are unlikely to... 10th May 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt set to pass first IMF review, but bigger tests to come The Egyptian government has probably made sufficient progress to pass the upcoming review of its IMF programme and receive the second tranche of its US$12bn loan. Investors are likely to welcome this... 11th April 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Mar.) Egyptian inflation rose further in March, to 30.9% y/y, but we think it’s close to peaking and the central bank is unlikely to tighten monetary policy further. Indeed, as inflation starts to fall back... 10th April 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s central bank unfazed by inflation surge The Egyptian central bank’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged today confirmed that policymakers are looking through the recent surge in inflation but, while inflation should start to fall... 30th March 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Feb.) Egyptian inflation jumped again in February but it is probably now close to peaking and is likely to start falling in the second half of the year. This, coupled with signs that the balance of payments... 9th March 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: weaker pound having the desired effect Egypt’s balance of payments data for Q4 released today show only a modest narrowing in the current account deficit, but digging a little deeper there are signs that the 50% drop in the pound against... 8th March 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s central bank looks through inflation spike The decision by Egypt’s central bank to leave its policy interest rate on hold despite the rise in inflation to a 30-year high last month means that additional monetary tightening is no longer on the... 16th February 2017 · 1 min read
