Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Aug.) The rise in Egyptian inflation to 14.2% y/y last month, coupled with the backdrop of the recent sell-off in EM financial markets, means that the central bank will probably leave interest rates... 10th September 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: fresh pound weakness still on the cards The Central Bank of Egypt appears to have intervened to support the pound in recent months, but we expect the authorities to loosen their grip over the next couple of years. We have pencilled in a 10%... 5th September 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Aug.) August’s PMIs for the Gulf economies suggest that fiscal stimulus has continued to support a recovery in Saudi Arabia, but weaker external demand is weighing on growth in the UAE. Meanwhile, Egypt’s... 4th September 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s easing cycle to resume next month The Egyptian central left interest rates on hold last night, but declining inflation means that the easing cycle is likely to resume at September’s MPC meeting. And we still think that interest rates... 17th August 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Jul.) Last month’s PMI data for the Gulf provide further evidence that higher oil prices and recent fiscal measures are supporting robust growth in the non-oil sector. Elsewhere, Egypt’s survey suggests... 13th August 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Jul.) Egyptian inflation edged down to 13.5% y/y last month, a sign that the impact of the recent administered price hikes are starting to fade. But this will not be enough to prompt policymakers to loosen. 9th August 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s public finances on the right track Egypt’s public finances are still in a poor state but the government has made progress in cutting the budget deficit in recent years and the debt ratio is now falling. The pace of fiscal consolidation... 1st August 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s external position on the mend The improvement in Egypt’s balance of payments position over the past eighteen months should be sustained, providing some support to the pound. Accordingly, inflation should resume its downward trend... 24th July 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Jun.) Egyptian inflation jumped to 14.4% y/y last month on the back of recent administered price hikes, but we still think that the next move in interest rates will be down. 10th July 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: should we worry about rising public FX debt? The sharp rise in the Egyptian government’s foreign currency debt over the past few years is not yet a major cause for concern – the risk of a destabilising fall in the pound appears to be low and the... 4th July 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt rates on hold, easing cycle to resume in September The Egyptian central bank’s decision to leave interest rates on hold (rather than lower rates) was a response to recently-announced subsidy cuts that will push up inflation. But the easing cycle is... 28th June 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Bahrain gets Gulf support, new gas discovery in Egypt? The announcement on Wednesday that Bahrain is in talks with the other Gulf countries over financial support reinforces our view that, despite recent worries in the markets, its dollar peg won’t be... 28th June 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt subsidy cuts, Saudi upgrade, OPEC meeting Hikes to fuel prices announced by the Egyptian government over the past week mean that the central bank will refrain lowering interest rates at its upcoming meeting. Meanwhile, growing tensions within... 21st June 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s easing cycle to resume later this year A further sharp fall in Egyptian inflation last month has strengthened the case for further interest rate cuts. But policymakers seem hesitant to loosen policy against the backdrop of upcoming subsidy... 11th June 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: near-term outlook is bright Egypt’s economy has weathered the fallout from the pound’s devaluation in late-2016 and, as fiscal consolidation slows and inflation and interest rates drop back, growth should remain robust over the... 23rd May 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s easing cycle takes a pause The Egyptian central bank’s decision to keep interest rates on hold, rather than cut them again, comes on the back of a pick-up in underlying price pressures as well as the recent sell-off in EM... 17th May 2018 · 1 min read
