Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Should we worry about Egypt’s external debt? The sharp rise in Egyptian external debt in the last few years has triggered alarm in some quarters. But it has been accompanied by a large increase in FX reserves, suggesting that risks are currently... 20th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Jul.) The drop in Egyptian inflation to a four year low of 8.7% y/y in July reinforces our view that the central bank will resume its easing cycle at its next meeting with a 100bp cut in the overnight... 8th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Jun.) The sharp decline in Egyptian inflation last month, to a three-year low of 9.4% y/y, increases the chances that the central bank will soon resume its easing cycle. But policymakers will wait for... 10th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s IMF deal: end of term report Egypt’s IMF deal has proved successful in helping to repair the country’s balance sheets, but many of the structural constraints facing the economy remain in place and will be extremely difficult to... 17th June 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices & Whole Economy PMIs (May) The rise in Egyptian inflation in May, combined with upcoming subsidy cuts, means that the central bank will almost certainly refrain from resuming its easing cycle in the coming months. Meanwhile... 10th June 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian pound’s rally unlikely to last The Egyptian pound has been the best performing EM currency this year, but we think that it will give up all of its gains over the coming months. We forecast the pound to depreciate by around 7% to 18... 4th June 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: easing cycle on hold until late-2019 The Egyptian central bank’s decision today to keep interest rates on hold (rather than cut them) reflected policymakers’ concerns about the inflationary impact of upcoming subsidy cuts. But with... 23rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Apr.) Egyptian inflation dropped back in April but given that it remained above target, the chance of an interest rate cut at the MPC meeting in two weeks’ time is touch and go. For now, though, we still... 9th May 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Mar.) The relatively high Egyptian inflation reading, of 14.2% y/y in March, reduces the probability that the central bank will resume its easing cycle at the next meeting in late May. But if we’re right... 10th April 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian central bank pauses easing cycle The Egyptian central bank’s decision today to keep interest rates unchanged (rather than cut rates) appears to have been a result of the jump in inflation in February. But if we’re right that... 28th March 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Rate cuts still on the cards in Egypt The jump in Egyptian inflation in February has reduced the chances that the central bank will loosen policy at this month’s MPC meeting, but subdued core price pressures and strong capital inflows... 11th March 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Rates in Egypt and Tunisia head in opposite directions Interest rate moves in Egypt and Tunisia this month highlighted the important role that balance of payments positions are playing in monetary policy decisions. In Egypt, tighter fiscal policy and the... 28th February 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Egypt: improved fiscal health to support faster growth The recent improvement in Egypt’s budget position will be enough to keep the government’s debt ratio on a downward trend. Government bond yields are likely to fall and austerity looks set to come to... 27th February 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi oil output cuts and expat fees, Egypt inflation Comments from Saudi Arabia’s Oil Minister that oil production will be reduced to well below its OPEC quota suggests that the authorities are focused on driving oil prices higher in order to prevent a... 14th February 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s tourism recovery has further to run Egypt’s tourism sector has mounted a rapid recovery over the past couple of years and, so long as security concerns don’t flare up again, it probably has further to run. Tourism receipts could rise by... 12th February 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt’s pound to lose ground, Saudi anti-corruption drive The appreciation of the Egyptian pound this week appears to have been driven by a spurt of foreign portfolio inflows, but we still think that the currency will record a modest fall in the next couple... 31st January 2019 · 3 mins read
