Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Aug.) The fall in Egyptian inflation to a nine-month low of 3.4% y/y in August increases the likelihood that the central bank will resume its easing cycle when it meets later this month. But with... 10th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian inflation to stay below target Egypt’s economic recovery, a fall in the pound and a small rise in global oil prices are likely to cause the headline rate of inflation to drift up over the coming months. But it is unlikely to reach... 9th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Aug.) August’s whole economy PMIs from across the Middle East and North Africa all fell adding to the signs that activity in the region has plateaued amid fiscal austerity and continued virus containment... 3rd September 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s external strains easing, but pound to weaken The worst of the strains in Egypt’s balance of payments is probably now over and the current account deficit should narrow over the coming quarters, but we still think that the pound will gradually... 20th August 2020 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update CBE still reluctant to cut rates, for now The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) kept interest rates on hold for a fourth consecutive meeting on Thursday as policymakers remained cautious about delivering more monetary stimulus. That said, with the... 14th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Jul.) The fall in Egyptian inflation to an eight-month low of 4.2% y/y in July, alongside easing pressure on the pound, means that we think an interest rate cut at Thursday’s MPC meeting is more likely than... 10th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Frontier Markets Wrap A closer look at frontier dollar bond issuance A handful of frontier market governments have issued Eurobonds over the past few months, but these could create vulnerabilities further down the line, particularly in Egypt, Ukraine and Bahrain... 14th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Jun.) Egypt’s headline inflation rate picked up to 5.6% y/y in June and will probably rise a bit further over the coming months. Crucially, though, we expect inflation to remain below the mid-point of the... 9th July 2020 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (May) The fall in Egyptian inflation to 4.7% y/y in May leaves the headline rate well below the lower bound of the central bank’s target range and, with policymakers’ focus shifting away from supporting the... 10th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update CBE holds rates as it keeps a close eye on the pound The Central Bank of Egypt’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged today was not a major surprise given that efforts to prop up the pound have taken precedence over supporting the economy. If the... 14th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt returns to the IMF Egypt has become the latest emerging market to turn to the IMF for assistance and one of the priorities for the Fund is likely to be for the central bank to loosen its grip on the pound. That said... 27th April 2020 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Mar.) The slight fall in Egyptian inflation in March to 5.1% y/y leaves the headline rate well below the central bank’s target range which, coupled with the economic hit from the draconian measures to... 9th April 2020 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt, the pound and lessons from the past Egypt’s central bank is intervening to prop up the pound, but the experience from the previous decade is that such efforts ultimately prove futile. If policymakers try to support the pound for an... 8th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Coronavirus latest, IMF deals, Egyptian pound The spread of the coronavirus in the MENA region has led to further draconian containment measures being implemented, which will cause severe economic damage. In turn, this has raised the chances of... 26th March 2020 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Feb.) The sharp fall in Egyptian inflation in February to 5.3% y/y puts it well below the lower bound of the central bank’s target range. Coupled with mounting fears over the coronavirus outbreak, this... 10th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update CBE to pause easing cycle for a little longer The Central Bank of Egypt’s (CBE) decision to keep interest rates unchanged last night for a second consecutive meeting suggests that policymakers are more concerned by the recent uptick in inflation... 21st February 2020 · 2 mins read
