Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Egypt’s cabinet reshuffle, PMIs, Oman income tax

Egypt’s cabinet reshuffle gave the government a facelift, but it doesn’t look like there will be any U-turns on policymaking – and particularly the fiscal consolidation path. Meanwhile, the batch of...

4th July 2024 · 8 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Egypt needs to stick to frugality to ease debt fears

Egypt’s government faces a likely further rise in debt servicing costs over the coming year. But the good news is that the budget for the 2024/25 fiscal year (which started this week) reaffirmed the...

3rd July 2024 · 5 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Egypt blackouts, Morocco rate cut, Iran election

Gas shortages in Egypt have led to blackouts and hotter summers are likely to raise demand for energy in the future. Absent further large gas finds, Egypt’s time as a natural gas net exporter is...

27th June 2024 · 6 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack

Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (June 2024)

Growth in the Gulf economies is likely to pick up in the coming quarters, particularly as oil output starts to rise from October. We think non-oil sectors will continue to grow strongly. But the...

25th June 2024 · 1 min read

Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook

GDP growth pick-up on a fragile footing

Growth in the Gulf economies is likely to pick up in the coming quarters, particularly as oil output starts to rise from October. We think non-oil sectors will continue to grow strongly. But the...

18th June 2024 · 20 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response

Egypt Consumer Prices (May 2024)

Egypt’s headline inflation dropped back from 32.5% y/y in April to 28.1% y/y, the lowest outturn since the start of 2023. Inflation is likely to rise again in June and July due to government price...

10th June 2024 · 2 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

UAE exceptionalism, Egypt reshuffle, Saudi mortgages

The decision by OPEC+ to roll over oil production cuts until October will reduce economic growth in the Gulf this year, but the UAE has emerged a clear winner. Higher oil output there will lead to a...

6th June 2024 · 7 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

OPEC+ set for crunch talks and Egypt’s fiscal reforms

This weekend’s OPEC+ meeting could be a stick or twist moment with markets increasingly believing the group will roll over its quotas and voluntary cuts again. If quotas are extended, that risks...

30th May 2024 · 6 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack

Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (May 2024)

Low oil output in the Gulf has constrained economic growth so far this year and the upcoming OPEC+ meeting will prove pivotal to the outlook over the rest of this year. Elsewhere in Middle East and...

29th May 2024 · 1 min read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Saudi gigaproject dilemma, Ras el-Hekma boost, Tunisia

Comments from Saudi Arabia’s Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan this week add to the evidence that spending on gigaprojects may be curtailed. But his comments pinning this on concerns about...

16th May 2024 · 7 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Can Egypt take advantage of a weak pound?

Egypt’s shift back toward economic orthodoxy will result in near-term economic pain, but it could also pave the way for faster economic growth over a longer horizon. Part of that will rest on Egypt...

15th May 2024 · 5 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

UAE ups the ante with OPEC, review of April’s PMIs

The UAE has raised its oil production capacity even further in a sign that it wants to raise actual output. But with rumours growing that OPEC+ may extend its current low oil output quotas beyond June...

9th May 2024 · 7 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response

Egypt Consumer Prices (Apr. 2024)

Egypt’s headline inflation rate slowed from 33.3% y/y in March to 32.5% y/y in April and we think that inflation will continue to ease over the rest of this year and into 2025. That said, while...

9th May 2024 · 2 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Egypt’s privatisation drive, dollarisation in Lebanon

Egypt’s latest privatisation drive appears to have stalled after targets were watered down. The government doesn’t face the same need to secure revenues as it did recently, but privatisation is still...

25th April 2024 · 7 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

“Turnaround EMs”: good start but plenty more to do

The policy shifts underway in Turkey, Nigeria, Argentina and Egypt have ticked a lot of the right boxes so far, but it will take years for the full economic benefits to materialise and require...

24th April 2024 · 5 mins read