Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Tunisia fiscal policy, Egypt’s private sector, COVID-19 Tunisia’s government upwardly revised its 2021 budget deficit target this week which, coupled with growing signs of it making concessions to appease the UGTT labour union, adds to our view that the... 18th November 2021 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Oct.) Egypt’s headline inflation rate eased to 6.3% y/y in October and is likely to remain around 6.0-6.5% over the rest of this year and in early 2022. Against this backdrop, we think the Central Bank of... 10th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt inflation, Saudi budget, Bahrain’s fiscal plan Rising wheat and gas prices have added to concerns about inflation in Egypt, raising the risk that the central bank fails to deliver the interest rate cuts that we currently anticipate next year... 4th November 2021 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Oct.) October’s batch of whole economy PMIs showed that recoveries in non-hydrocarbon sectors in the Gulf strengthened, particularly in the UAE as the Expo got underway this month. But price pressures are... 3rd November 2021 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Rising inflation to delay resumption of CBE’s easing The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) kept interest rates unchanged at Thursday’s MPC meeting amid rising price pressures. Against this backdrop, we think that the central bank is likely to delay the... 29th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ to stay the course, Qatari banks, Saudi’s new NIF We think OPEC+ will stick to its guns next week and raise output quotas by 400,000bpd, but if it bows to pressure to move more quickly the Gulf economies would stand to benefit most. Elsewhere... 28th October 2021 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack What do higher oil prices mean outside of the Gulf? The Gulf countries will be among the biggest winners globally from the recent rally in energy prices but most other parts of the Middle East and North Africa are net oil importers and are likely to be... 27th October 2021 · 10 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Gulf to outperform Economic recoveries in the Gulf will continue to gather pace over the coming year on the back of successful vaccine rollouts and higher oil output, and our GDP growth forecasts lie above the consensus... 19th October 2021 · 25 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt and UAE inflation, OPEC+, austerity in Algeria Inflation figures for Egypt showed the headline rate jumped to a 20-month high in September and we think that this will delay a turn towards interest rate cuts. Elsewhere, the UAE emerged from... 14th October 2021 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ fallout, Oman’s upgrade, TUI cancellations The OPEC+ meeting this week triggered a rise in oil prices and, while we expect prices to fall by next year, rising production means that overall oil export revenues for the Gulf economies should... 7th October 2021 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s recovery facing several headwinds Egypt’s economy has emerged from the COVID-19 crisis relatively well, but the country’s lagging vaccine rollout, a slow return of international tourists and tight fiscal policy mean that the recovery... 6th October 2021 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Sep.) September’s batch of whole economy PMIs showed that recoveries in non-hydrocarbon private sectors in Saudi Arabia and Qatar gathered pace as domestic activity strengthened on the back of easing virus... 5th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Rise in inflation to prove short-lived Inflation in many economies in the region has risen to multi-year highs in recent months. In general, this has been driven higher by a combination of unfavourable base effects from the pandemic, as... 28th September 2021 · 14 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Central Bank of Egypt keeps rates on hold for now The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) kept interest rates unchanged at Thursday’s MPC meeting amid rising price pressures. However, we still think that inflation will slow in the final months of this year... 17th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus The pandemic and EM scarring risks The pandemic is likely to inflict lasting damage on potential growth in economies in much of Latin America, Africa and South and Southeast Asia, adding to the structural headwinds that they already... 9th September 2021 · 17 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Algosaibi deal, Egypt and COVID, UAE Projects of the 50 One of Saudi Arabia’s largest conglomerates, the Algosaibi group, is on the cusp of securing a debt restructuring agreement with its creditors, a sign that recent reforms are helping to speed up... 9th September 2021 · 7 mins read
