Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Fed hikes, Egypt’s policymaking, Egypt-Israel-EU gas deal Central banks in the Gulf followed the Fed in hiking interest rates and further tightening lies in store. But there are reasons to think that the region’s economies will be relatively unscathed by... 16th June 2022 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ fallout, PMIs, Tunisia austerity plans Last week’s decision by OPEC+ to accelerate the pace at which it is raising its oil production quota will provide a fillip to economic growth in Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Meanwhile, May’s batch of... 9th June 2022 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (May) Egypt’s headline inflation rose to a three-year high of 13.5% y/y in May as the lagged effects from the devaluation of the pound in March continued to push up non-food inflation. Inflation will... 9th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s privatisation drive and lessons from history Egypt’s government is set to kick off its latest privatisation drive later this year, but its track record provides little hope that it will meet targets. The authorities are likely to retain a high... 6th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ talks, strike in Tunisia, Egypt’s bread subsidies Reports that OPEC+ may suspend Russia from its oil output deal reinforce our view that the Gulf states will raise production faster later this year. Meanwhile, Tunisia’s largest trade union called... 1st June 2022 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi fiscal policy, the IMF in Tunisia and Egypt Saudi Arabia’s Finance Minister Mohammed al-Jadaan provided hints in comments this week that the fiscal purse strings could soon be loosened if oil prices remain elevated. Elsewhere, officials in... 26th May 2022 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Monetary tightening stepped up A majority of central banks in the region hiked interest rates over the past month. In the Gulf, central banks raised interest rates in line with the Federal Reserve, although this won’t necessarily... 26th May 2022 · 14 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Apr.) Egypt’s headline inflation rate jumped to a near-three year high of 13.1% y/y in April on the back of the spillovers from the war in Ukraine and effects of the devaluation of the pound. Inflation will... 10th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s external strains still a risk despite devaluation The war in Ukraine has compounded strains in Egypt’s balance of payments and prompted officials to devalue the pound. The key risk now is that the authorities revert to heavily managing the nominal... 9th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Pockets of public debt vulnerability Tighter global monetary conditions and spillovers from the war in Ukraine have caused public debt problems to worsen in several emerging markets, and the MENA region is not immune to this. Within the... 28th April 2022 · 10 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Oman's income tax, Egypt privatisation drive Reports over the past week suggest that, despite the boost to the public finances from high oil prices, Oman’s government is sticking to fiscal tightening with the likely introduction of a personal... 28th April 2022 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Gulf leads the way as Ukraine war drives divergence The Gulf economies will be major beneficiaries from higher energy prices and our growth forecasts sit far above the consensus. Outside the Gulf, higher inflation and tighter fiscal policy will weigh... 25th April 2022 · 25 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt FX revenues boost, Tunisia avoids default (for now) Egyptian officials appear to be hoping for a revival of the tourism sector as part of their strategy to improve the external position, but we still think that the currency will need to weaken further... 21st April 2022 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly N. Africa gas deals, Gulf tightening, Lebanon and the IMF Europe’s plans to wean itself off Russian gas could benefit producers in North Africa – and Egypt in particular. Elsewhere, stronger inflation in MENA and rate hikes by the Federal Reserve have... 14th April 2022 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian inflation and rates to rise much further Egyptian inflation rose to a near-three year high in March and will continue to pick up on the back of the spillovers from the war in Ukraine and last month’s devaluation. We now think interest rates... 11th April 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egyptian pound, Kuwait political turmoil, Tunisia election The Egyptian pound has remained relatively stable since last month’s devaluation, but we think policymakers need to move to a more flexible exchange rate and allow the currency to weaken further... 7th April 2022 · 7 mins read
