Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Egypt shifts to flexible exchange rate, hikes interest rates Egypt’s central bank has just announced that it is shifting to a more flexible exchange rate regime, which we think will result in the pound falling 18% to 24/$ by end-2023 if not sooner. The move... 27th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Oil output cuts to drive sharper Gulf slowdown OPEC+ cut its oil production quotas by 2mn bpd in November and strong compliance with the agreement will hit GDP growth in the Gulf economies harder than other members of the group. The result is that... 26th October 2022 · 10 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly The IMF & MENA, Saudi’s industry strategy, oil demand Tunisia’s staff-level agreement with the IMF for a new deal should reduce concerns of a messy balance of payments crisis, but a sovereign debt restructuring still looks likely. Egypt, meanwhile, looks... 20th October 2022 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Egypt to suffer short-term economic pain Spillovers from the war in Ukraine and tighter external financing conditions have exacerbated strains in Egypt’s balance of payments and we think the pound needs to fall a lot further. This will add... 13th October 2022 · 15 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Sep.) Egypt’s headline inflation rate rose to 15.0% y/y in September, its fastest pace in nearly four years as the impact of the falls in the pound fed through. Inflation will accelerate over the rest of... 10th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ decision fallout, Egypt’s IMF deal The decision by OPEC+ to cut oil production quotas by 2mn bpd from November will fall disproportionately on the Gulf members - Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Kuwait. This clearly presents a downside risk... 6th October 2022 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response PMIs (Sep.) The batch of PMIs for September continued to paint a picture of economic divergence between the Gulf economies and the rest of the Middle East and North Africa. With fiscal policy set to be loosened... 4th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Egypt: the pound, central bank, and the IMF The Egyptian pound has continued to weaken as the central bank has taken tentative steps towards a more flexible exchange rate, and we think that the currency needs to weaken further to address the... 29th September 2022 · 14 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update External strains building in North Africa The Gulf countries have benefitted enormously from higher energy prices and will run large current account surpluses. But external positions have deteriorated in other parts of the region. That... 27th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly UAE oil capacity, Egypt FX restrictions, Saudi-rupee trade The UAE is seeking to raise oil production capacity more aggressively than previously planned as it aims to get ahead of peak oil demand and capture oil market share. Elsewhere, Saudi Arabia also... 22nd September 2022 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MPC meetings galore, Tunisia shortages and debt default Central banks in the Gulf are set to hike interest rates next week in line with the Fed, and we think that the Central Bank of Egypt will join the party and resume its tightening cycle next Thursday... 15th September 2022 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ decision, a flexible EGP, inflation in MENA OPEC+’s decision to cut oil output quotas by 100,000bpd at Monday’s meeting and subsequent comments from the Saudi energy minister highlight the group’s wariness of a global recession and we expect... 8th September 2022 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Aug.) Egypt’s headline inflation rate jumped to a near-four-year high of 14.6% y/y in August as the impact of the weaker pound continued to filtered through. Inflation is likely to rise a little further... 8th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s external risks underline need for weaker pound Concerns over Egypt’s external position have grown due to the country’s wide current account deficit, rising short-term external debt and declining FX reserves. While some of the risks are mitigated... 6th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response PMIs (Aug.) August’s batch of PMIs showed that activity in the Gulf economies pulled further ahead of their non-Gulf counterparts even as external demand has weakened on the back of softer global growth... 5th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly CBE policy moves, OPEC+ meeting, Tunisia default risks The Central Bank of Egypt appears to be pressing ahead with its shift toward a more flexible exchange rate regime, which should also increase the likelihood of Egypt securing an IMF deal. Elsewhere... 1st September 2022 · 8 mins read
