Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Egypt Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.) The 300bp interest rate hike by the Egyptian Central Bank (CBE), which took the overnight deposit rate to 16.25%, suggests that policymakers are even more concerned about rising inflation and further... 22nd December 2022 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Door still open for fiscal loosening in the Gulf The slide in the price of oil since November has a little further to go in early 2023 and, while we think prices will recover later in the year, hydrocarbon revenues in the Gulf will be lower than... 21st December 2022 · 10 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly CBE surprise meeting(?), Tunisia elections, World Cup Rumours are building the Central Bank of Egypt could convene a surprise meeting later today to deliver another aggressive interest rate hike ahead of the approval of the IMF deal tomorrow. This could... 15th December 2022 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Oil sectors to fuel Gulf slowdown Growth across the Middle East and North Africa is set to slow sharply, and by more than most expect, next year. Oil output cuts will weigh on the Gulf even as fiscal policy stays loose. And while IMF... 13th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly N. African IMF deals, Saudi Budget, China-Saudi relations The IMF Executive Board is set to approve Egypt’s deal next week, but it’s notable that Tunisia staff-level agreement doesn’t seem to be on the Board’s agenda and the uncertainty will add to threat of... 8th December 2022 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Nov.) Egypt’s CPI inflation rate jumped from 16.2% y/y in October to 18.7% y/y in November – its fastest pace in five years. The headline rate only is set to only climb higher and the Central Bank of Egypt... 8th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response PMIs (Nov.) November’s batch of PMIs provide further evidence that the non-oil sectors in the Gulf economies are rounding off the year on a strong footing. 5th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack North Africa turns to IMF to ease external strains Economies across North Africa have endured severe balance of payments strains this year and governments in Egypt and Tunisia finally secured staff-level agreements with the IMF over the past month... 23rd November 2022 · 10 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt privatisation, Saudi investment, Qatar World Cup Egypt’s state ownership policy document could come into effect in before the end of this year, but it remains to be seen how willing the authorities are to relinquish their control over the economy... 17th November 2022 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt-UAE wind farm, Dubai property, Egypt downgrade Egypt’s announcement at COP27 of plans to build one of the largest onshore wind farms is a positive move to increase renewables usage that will improve energy security and support the balance of... 10th November 2022 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Oct.) The acceleration in Egypt’s CPI inflation rate from 15.0% y/y in September to a four-year high of 16.2% y/y in October (consensus 15.6% y/y, CE 15.8% y/y) lends support to our view that policymakers... 10th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt and Tunisia heading down different paths The recent IMF deals reached by governments in Egypt and Tunisia are positive developments and will help ease balance of payments strains in both countries. Egypt has already made progress with... 9th November 2022 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi banking sector, UAE-Saudi quarrel, COP27 The surge in Saudi interbank rates in recent weeks could cause credit growth to slow more quickly than we currently expect. Elsewhere, reports point to growing discontent in the UAE with Saudi Arabia... 3rd November 2022 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response PMIs (Oct.) October’s batch of PMIs picked up in most of the region but there remains a stark divergence in growth prospects between the Gulf and non-Gulf economies. 3rd November 2022 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt (finally) shifts to flexible pound, secures IMF deal This week ended with a bang as Egypt finally shifted to a more flexible exchange rate and secured an IMF deal. Some short-term economic pain is on the cards, but the move will help to restore macro... 27th October 2022 · 8 mins read
Event Egypt Drop-In: Will Cairo's reform announcements seal an IMF deal? 1666864800 The Egyptian government announced steps to tackle its economic crisis, including a shift to a more flexible exchange rate regime and accompanying interest rate hikes -- but will it be enough?
