Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Tunisia’s referendum, Egypt privatisation, MENA Outlook Tunisians will vote on proposed constitutional amendments on Monday, which could further deter foreign investors and impede progress on an IMF deal, compounding the country's economic problems... 21st July 2022 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Oil price falls, Saudi & UAE fiscal loosening, PMIs Oil prices have fallen over the past month as global recession fears have mounted but, while they are likely to decline further over the coming years, they will remain high by past standards. This... 7th July 2022 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Jun.) Egypt’s headline inflation rate slowed for the first time since November to 13.2% y/y in June, but inflation will remain above the upper bound of the Central Bank of Egypt’s target range until late... 7th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Region’s financial markets routed Risk-off sentiment and the sell-off in EM financial markets have hit the Middle East and North Africa hard. Having been the top regional performer earlier in the year, the MSCI Arabian Markets Index... 24th June 2022 · 13 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt public finance risks contained… for now Egypt’s public debt dynamics look increasingly fragile due to a combination of the extremely short average maturity of its debt, rapidly rising yields, and a growing share of debt denominated in... 20th June 2022 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Fed hikes, Egypt’s policymaking, Egypt-Israel-EU gas deal Central banks in the Gulf followed the Fed in hiking interest rates and further tightening lies in store. But there are reasons to think that the region’s economies will be relatively unscathed by... 16th June 2022 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ fallout, PMIs, Tunisia austerity plans Last week’s decision by OPEC+ to accelerate the pace at which it is raising its oil production quota will provide a fillip to economic growth in Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Meanwhile, May’s batch of... 9th June 2022 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (May) Egypt’s headline inflation rose to a three-year high of 13.5% y/y in May as the lagged effects from the devaluation of the pound in March continued to push up non-food inflation. Inflation will... 9th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s privatisation drive and lessons from history Egypt’s government is set to kick off its latest privatisation drive later this year, but its track record provides little hope that it will meet targets. The authorities are likely to retain a high... 6th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ talks, strike in Tunisia, Egypt’s bread subsidies Reports that OPEC+ may suspend Russia from its oil output deal reinforce our view that the Gulf states will raise production faster later this year. Meanwhile, Tunisia’s largest trade union called... 1st June 2022 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi fiscal policy, the IMF in Tunisia and Egypt Saudi Arabia’s Finance Minister Mohammed al-Jadaan provided hints in comments this week that the fiscal purse strings could soon be loosened if oil prices remain elevated. Elsewhere, officials in... 26th May 2022 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Monetary tightening stepped up A majority of central banks in the region hiked interest rates over the past month. In the Gulf, central banks raised interest rates in line with the Federal Reserve, although this won’t necessarily... 26th May 2022 · 14 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Apr.) Egypt’s headline inflation rate jumped to a near-three year high of 13.1% y/y in April on the back of the spillovers from the war in Ukraine and effects of the devaluation of the pound. Inflation will... 10th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s external strains still a risk despite devaluation The war in Ukraine has compounded strains in Egypt’s balance of payments and prompted officials to devalue the pound. The key risk now is that the authorities revert to heavily managing the nominal... 9th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Pockets of public debt vulnerability Tighter global monetary conditions and spillovers from the war in Ukraine have caused public debt problems to worsen in several emerging markets, and the MENA region is not immune to this. Within the... 28th April 2022 · 10 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Oman's income tax, Egypt privatisation drive Reports over the past week suggest that, despite the boost to the public finances from high oil prices, Oman’s government is sticking to fiscal tightening with the likely introduction of a personal... 28th April 2022 · 5 mins read