Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt: winners and losers of a weaker EGP emerging Recent falls in the pound and rising borrowing costs forced Egypt’s Ministry of Finance to revise up its targets for debt and the budget deficit earlier this week, but we remain of the view that the... 2nd March 2023 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Morocco’s drought, Egypt’s dollar sukuk The effects of another severe drought in Morocco have weighed on growth, pushed up inflation and fuelled pockets of unrest. Supermarkets in Europe have felt the impact too, with many reporting... 23rd February 2023 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Gulf slowdown underway After a stellar performance for most of 2022, the Gulf economies are slowing. Primarily, that has reflected the impact of oil production cuts agreed with the rest of OPEC+ which is weighing on growth... 23rd February 2023 · 14 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi external position, PMIs, Egypt privatisation Recent data showed that Saudi Arabia recorded its largest current surplus since late 2014 in Q3 of last year as oil revenues boomed. The Public Investment Fund (PIF) is recycling these surpluses into... 9th February 2023 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Jan. 2023) Egypt’s headline inflation rate climbed from 21.3% y/y in December to 25.8% y/y in January, its fastest pace since November 2017, on the back of the recent large falls in the pound. This adds to our... 9th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update A temporary pause in Egypt’s tightening cycle The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) surprisingly left interest rates unchanged at Thursday’s MPC meeting but, with inflation likely to rise even further above the central bank’s target, we still think... 3rd February 2023 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt privatisations, Saudi tourism, Lebanon re-pegs Egypt’s privatisation drive appears to be stepping up a gear in 2023 with plans to sell stakes in twenty companies which, if these materialise, will boost long-term economic prospects. But it remains... 2nd February 2023 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM banks well placed to face rising loan losses EM banks will face an increase in loan losses this year, but the good news is that banking sectors on the whole appear well-placed to absorb these, particularly in parts of Latin America, Emerging... 2nd February 2023 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ cuts, Egypt and the dollar, education reform OPEC+ is set to continue with its existing oil output quotas next week, although this means that oil sectors will act as a drag on the Gulf economies over the early part of 2023. Elsewhere, Egypt is... 26th January 2023 · 9 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi and the “petroyuan”, investors like EGP fall Comments by Saudi Arabia’s finance minister that the Kingdom could conduct trade in currencies other than the dollar will add fuel to the debate about the rise of a “petroyuan”. There are hurdles to... 19th January 2023 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: will falls in the pound trigger a public debt crisis? The recent falls in the Egyptian pound pose a threat to Egypt’s fragile public debt dynamics but we think that the government will be able to muddle through. The key risk is that the government shifts... 18th January 2023 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly What do the latest falls in the EGP mean for Egypt? The Egyptian pound has pared its losses after sharp falls against the dollar on Wednesday in a sign that, just like 2016, the currency may have overshot. The central bank may sense an opportunity to... 12th January 2023 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt, the pound, and competitiveness The sharp fall in the Egyptian pound today means that, in real trade-weighted terms, it is at its lowest level since the 2016 devaluation. The experience from that period is that the boost to Egypt’s... 11th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Dec.) Egypt’s CPI inflation rate jumped from 18.7% y/y in November to 21.3% y/y in December, its fastest pace since the end of 2017. With the pound having weakened even further since the turn of the year... 10th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Fears EGP fall will trigger sovereign debt crisis overdone The latest fall in the Egyptian pound sends a strong signal that the authorities are committed to the shift to a more flexible exchange rate. And while the weaker currency poses a threat to the... 5th January 2023 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: pound fall a sign that officials are on right path The sharp fall in the Egyptian pound today, coming in the wake of last week’s move to ease FX restrictions, suggests that the authorities are starting to make good on their pledge to shift to a more... 4th January 2023 · 5 mins read
