Asia Economics Weekly Philippines peso will sustain outperformance The Philippine peso has been the best performing currency in Emerging Asia so far this year and is now at its highest level against the US dollar since late 2016. We expect the peso to strengthen... 18th September 2020 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia: monetary policy outlook depends on rupiah Bank Indonesia’s (BI) decision to leave interest rates unchanged today at 4.0% shows that it is prioritising financial stability over supporting the economy. Further easing is possible later in the... 17th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Export recovery will be a long slog The rebound in EM exports continued in July, but further gains will be harder to come by from here. Indeed, the initial boost from re-opening economies is likely to fade and the slowing global... 17th September 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Our Tracker suggests that last month EMs suffered the largest net outflow of capital since the height of the market turmoil in March. Net outflows look set to persist in the coming months, although... 16th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Second wave fears ease as infections fall The recent jump in coronavirus cases in Korea, Hong Kong and Vietnam had a negative impact on each economy, with hospitality sectors bearing the brunt of the damage. But with infection numbers now... 11th September 2020 · 6 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (1st – 10th Sep.) Korean exports rose in levels terms in the first 10 days of September and, with trading-partner economies still getting back on their feet, we expect further gradual improvements in external demand. 11th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Will EMs gain from China’s strong recovery? China’s strong economic recovery is likely to provide more of a support to the recovery in (non-oil) commodity producers in Latin America and Africa than it will in the rest of Asia. But we don’t... 10th September 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM easing cycles: revisiting lessons from the GFC The experience of the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) chimes with our EM rates view on two counts. The first is that easing cycles in many EMs are now at an end (Brazil) or will draw to... 9th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Spate of financial crises avoided, but hangovers loom Most major EMs have managed to avoid acute balance of payments, banking sector and sovereign debt problems so far this year. But pockets of vulnerability remain. In particular, the risk of another... 4th September 2020 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Slow recovery in the Philippines, Taiwan-US FTA A long and strict lockdown meant the Philippines suffered one of the biggest falls in GDP in the region in the second quarter. The most recent data suggest that it is also experiencing one of the... 4th September 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update PMIs provide more evidence of uneven recovery The further rise in the EM manufacturing PMI to a nine-year high of 52.5 in August, from 51.4 in July, suggests that the EM recovery continued in the middle of Q3. But the rebound has been uneven... 1st September 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Aug.) PMI readings suggest that manufacturing conditions generally improved in Asia last month, and we expect more gradual improvements as the external environment slowly recovers. 1st September 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly QE is coming, tourist reopening pushed back The Bank of Korea this week hinted at further rate cuts and we expect it to also ramp up unconventional policy measures in the coming months. The Bank of Thailand is likely to follow suit – deflation... 28th August 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Aug) Our Tracker suggests that EMs experienced net capital inflows last month for the first time since the coronavirus crisis began. Daily data suggest that net capital inflows were generally sustained in... 26th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Second wave unlikely to completely derail recoveries Having been among the fastest in the world at controlling the initial outbreak, Hong Kong, Vietnam and Korea are all at different stages of a second wave of infections. With new infections in Hong... 26th August 2020 · 14 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack First waves still the big concern A handful of countries in East Asia and Eastern Europe (notably Korea and Poland) are suffering from rising coronavirus cases again, but the hit to activity there resulting from precautionary consumer... 25th August 2020 · 11 mins read
