Asia Economics Update Bigger external surpluses put Asia under US spotlight The COVID-19 crisis has led to a ballooning of current account surpluses across Emerging Asia that is putting upward pressure on currencies. The shift to bigger external surpluses could also land the... 14th October 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Could the crisis lead to higher EM inflation? Large output gaps look set to keep inflation low in most emerging markets over the next few years. But further out, we think that worrying public debt trajectories in some places (Brazil and South... 13th October 2020 · 15 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Vietnam in US cross hairs Vietnam has so far emerged as the biggest winner of the US-China trade war, as tariffs on goods from China have led US importers to switch suppliers. Vietnam’s exports to the US have doubled since the... 9th October 2020 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Three points on the latest bout of EM capital outflows Daily data suggest that foreign investors have been net sellers of emerging market bonds and equities in recent weeks, but there are reasons not to be very concerned. 8th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economic Outlook Central banks to resume easing cycles soon With the virus under control in most of the region, Emerging Asia is bouncing back from the crisis faster than other parts of the world. But the pace of recovery is uneven. China is leading the way... 8th October 2020 · 36 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Indonesia in no rush to tighten, Vietnam rate cut Indonesia has signalled that fiscal policy will remain supportive of the economic recovery after it unveiled a budget for next year that envisages only a very small fall in the budget deficit... 2nd October 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Solid September PMIs, but recovery to lose steam September’s relatively strong batch of emerging market manufacturing PMIs suggests that recoveries in industrial production continued in September. But with the global rebound losing steam, growth in... 1st October 2020 · 3 mins read
Frontier Markets Wrap The latest on sovereign debt restructurings Recent moves by Angola and Zambia to restructure their public debts (or seek to) are unlikely to act as a trigger for a wave of similar steps by other debt-distressed frontiers. Indeed, their... 30th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Recoveries entering a slower phase, China an exception The latest activity and mobility data indicate that the EM recovery has lost some steam in recent months and we expect the pace of recovery to remain slow-going in the coming quarters. The main... 30th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Taking stock of EM financial conditions EM financial conditions have tightened a little in recent weeks, although only in Turkey does this threaten to become a significant headwind to growth. Elsewhere, conditions remain very loose but the... 29th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Encouraging signs in Korea Korea looks to have contained its “second wave” of the virus with minimum cost to the economy. There were just 38 newly confirmed cases in Korea today, which was the lowest since early August and down... 29th September 2020 · 13 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Taking stock of the latest EM virus trends Most EMs in Latin America, Africa and South Asia that were battling worryingly large virus outbreaks appear to have passed the peak in recent weeks. That should allow a gradual scaling back of... 29th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Philippines: weak recovery, new currency forecasts Inadequate fiscal support is holding back growth in the Philippines and, unless this improves, the recovery will continue to underwhelm. Meanwhile, despite the recent sell-off in EM currency markets... 25th September 2020 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Recovery now in a tougher phase After an initial burst of growth following the lifting of national lockdowns, the latest activity data and mobility indicators point to a slower pace of recovery in most EMs in recent months. This... 24th September 2020 · 12 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM food inflation set to ease A number of EMs – notably Brazil, Mexico and Korea – have experienced strong increases in food inflation in recent months, which have pushed up headline rates. But we think that food inflation in the... 24th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Fortunes diverge in South Asia Success in bringing the COVID-19 outbreak under control in Pakistan, Sri Lanka and to a lesser extent Bangladesh has enabled activity in these places to rebound much faster than in India, where new... 22nd September 2020 · 3 mins read
