Asia Economics Weekly Fiscal policy in Sri Lanka, currency trouble in Thailand Although the crisis has led to a sharp rise in government debt, policymakers across Asia appear in little rush to tighten fiscal policy. The key exception is Sri Lanka, where a sharp tightening of... 18th December 2020 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan: central bank to keep rates on hold next year The decision by Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) to leave interest rates unchanged at 1.125% came as no surprise given the strong performance of the economy. We expect interest rates to be left unchanged... 17th December 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Philippines: central bank has not finished easing yet The central bank in the Philippines (BSP) left its key policy rate on hold today at 2.0%, but the weakness of the recovery means further easing is likely. 17th December 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update US takes aim at Vietnam The US Treasury’s decision to label Vietnam a currency manipulator today is primarily a response to the surge in Vietnam’s trade surplus with the US. The next step is likely to be talks – with Vietnam... 16th December 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Assessing the impact of a lockdown in Korea The Korean government is on the verge of introducing much tighter restrictions to stem the rise in coronavirus cases. We are not cutting our GDP growth forecasts yet, but the risks are now clearly to... 16th December 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Focus What to expect in 2021 and how we differ from consensus Our forecasts for GDP growth across emerging Asia in 2021 are much higher than consensus expectations across the board. Even so, in many places, output will still be below the pre-crisis level until... 16th December 2020 · 14 mins read
Global Markets Update Assessing the outlook for EM LC sovereign bonds Although we have revised up our forecasts for economic growth in many emerging markets (EMs), we generally still expect monetary policy to remain loose, or be loosened further, to the benefit of local... 14th December 2020 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Taiwan: central bank in little rush to raise rates Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) looks all but certain to leave its main policy rate unchanged at its current all-time low of 1.125% at its meeting on Thursday. With the economy performing well, there is a... 11th December 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Next year’s vaccine boost to vary across countries The race to secure and approve COVID-19 vaccines is in full swing and, while roll-out will generally be slower in EMs than in DMs, immunisation of vulnerable populations over the next year or so is a... 10th December 2020 · 11 mins read
Capital Daily Comparing the outlook for equities in Latam and EM Asia We think that the dramatic outperformance recently of equities in Latin America in general versus their peers in EM Asia has much further to run, as the world recovers from COVID-19. 9th December 2020 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly New forecasts on positive vaccine developments The recent good news on vaccine development means that countries in Emerging Asia are likely to start inoculating their populations sooner than we had previously envisaged. In response, we are raising... 4th December 2020 · 5 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (Nov.) Korean export growth continued to gather momentum in November and is set to remain strong in the months ahead, buoyed by foreign demand for electronics. 1st December 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.) PMI readings for Asia suggest that manufacturing conditions improved significantly in November. Buoyant global demand for electronics should continue to support the sector over the coming months. 1st December 2020 · 2 mins read
Asset Allocation Update The reversal of relative fortunes within EM equities We think that the outperformance of equities in EM EMEA and Latin America relative to those in EM Asia in November is a sign of things to come, as the world recovers from COVID-19. 30th November 2020 · 4 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Rate-cutting cycle not over yet National accounts data published over the past month or so confirm that many economies experienced record-breaking rebounds in GDP in the third quarter. However, there are significant variations... 30th November 2020 · 13 mins read
EM Markets Chart Pack Reaction to vaccine news may be a sign of things to come Equities and bonds in emerging markets (EMs) rallied sharply on the vaccine news earlier this month, particularly outside of Asia. We think they will continue to fare well as the global economy... 27th November 2020 · 7 mins read
