Global Markets Update We see smaller gains ahead for EM Asian equities We think that the recent rally in emerging market (EM) Asian equities outside of China will slow substantially this year, and that they will begin to underperform other EM equities. Global State of... 27th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Further rate cuts likely despite rising inflation Headline inflation has crept higher in most countries across Emerging Asia over the past few months and looks set to rise sharply over the first half of this year due to a rebound in energy price... 27th January 2021 · 14 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Indonesia reforms, Vietnam leadership transition The near-term outlook for Indonesia’s economy is poor. A failure to contain the coronavirus means that the economic recovery is likely to be slow and fitful. But long-term economic prospects received... 22nd January 2021 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia easing cycle not over Bank Indonesia (BI) today left its main policy rate unchanged at 3.75%, but we doubt this marks the end of the central bank’s easing cycle. With the economic recovery struggling, inflation below... 21st January 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia’s central bank still likely to ease Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) left its main policy rate on hold at 1.75% today, but with the country once again in lockdown following a surge in COVID-19 cases, we think that the Bank will eventually be... 20th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update A guide to political events in 2021 In this Update we take a look at the important elections and political events that are set to take place across Asia over the coming year as well as any potential flashpoints, assessing the... 20th January 2021 · 3 mins read
EM Valuations Monitor We doubt Chinese equities are in a bubble The valuations of Chinese equities have risen considerably over the past few months. But we don’t think that they are yet in a big bubble that is bound to burst soon. 19th January 2021 · 8 mins read
Asia Economic Outlook New outbreaks key risk to above-consensus forecasts Our forecasts for GDP growth across Emerging Asia in 2021 are much higher than consensus expectations across the board, but fresh outbreaks in a number of countries mean the risks to our forecasts are... 18th January 2021 · 36 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Indonesia’s vaccine strategy, rate cut likely in Malaysia Indonesia’s vaccination campaign got underway earlier this week amid surging cases of COVID-19 across the country. Whereas most countries are prioritising the elderly and vulnerable in vaccination... 15th January 2021 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia: cutting our forecasts on new restrictions The decision by the Malaysian government to place the country under a two-week lockdown to slow the spread of the virus is likely to hit the economy hard. We are cutting our growth forecast for 2021... 12th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (1st – 10th Jan.) Korean trade data suggest that strong export growth continued at the start of the year and reaffirm our view that exports will remain an important support to recoveries in Korea and across Asia. 11th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Rapid growth in Vietnam, vaccine rollout begins GDP figures for Vietnam should always be treated with caution, but data released before New Year show that the economy grew by an impressive 4.5% y/y in the final quarter of 2020. This brought growth... 8th January 2021 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea: demographic “time bomb” to weigh on growth Korea’s population last year shrank for the first time in its history, underlining the seriousness of the demographic “time bomb” facing the country. The poor demographic outlook is the key reason why... 5th January 2021 · 5 mins read
Asia Chart Pack New outbreaks pose downside risks to 2021 forecasts Korea, Hong Kong, Malaysia and Thailand are all experiencing major new outbreaks of the virus, which pose a significant downside risk to our relatively upbeat GDP forecasts for these countries for... 22nd December 2020 · 14 mins read
Capital Daily Making the case for EM EMEA and Latin American equities We expect equities in EM EMEA and Latin America to claw back some more of the ground that they lost this year relative to stock markets elsewhere, as some fundamental factors linked to the spread of... 18th December 2020 · 7 mins read
EM Markets Chart Pack We expect EM local currency bond yields to remain low Positive vaccine news has not changed our view that monetary policy in many emerging markets (EMs) will generally remain loose for some time yet. That is a key reason why we still expect EM local... 18th December 2020 · 8 mins read
