Asia Economics Weekly The Asian century, little to fear from higher oil prices We recently launched our new service, The Long Run, which includes detailed forecasts out to 2050 for 58 economies. One of the key points that comes out from the forecasts is that Emerging Asia is set... 19th February 2021 · 7 mins read
China Economics Update China’s “sorpasso” Our long-run forecasts suggest that China will still be the second largest economy, measured at market exchange rates, in 2050. The most likely scenario is that slowing productivity growth and a... 18th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia to cut rates once more this year Bank Indonesia (BI) today cuts its main policy rate by 25bps to 3.50% and revised down its forecast for the coming year. The central bank, however, also noted the room for rate cuts was “getting... 18th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Singapore to keep fiscal taps running Singapore today unveiled a budget that will keep fiscal policy loose for the coming fiscal year (April 2021-March 2022), while also attempting to address some of the long-term challenges facing the... 16th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Thai recovery facing headwinds Thailand’s economy has been staging a gradual recovery from the crisis, with GDP figures due next week likely to show the economy contracted by around 5.5% y/y last quarter, compared with a decline of... 10th February 2021 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Malaysia restrictions extended, new equity forecasts Malaysian GDP figures, due to be released on Thursday, are likely to show a sharp slowdown in the recovery in the final quarter of last year. The recovery is likely to go into reverse this quarter... 5th February 2021 · 7 mins read
Asia Data Response Indonesia GDP (Q4) The contraction in Indonesian GDP eased slightly again at the end of last year, but a failure to control the virus means the recovery is likely to be slow and fitful in the quarters ahead. 5th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Philippines CPI (Jan.) Inflation broke through the upper boundary of the central Bank’s target range for the first time in two years in January and is likely to lead the Bank to pause its easing cycle. But with price... 5th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update FX intervention: echoes of “currency wars” The announcement of FX purchase programmes by several EM central banks has evoked comparisons with the “currency wars” that followed the Global Financial Crisis. One lesson from this period is that FX... 4th February 2021 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Thailand to keep rates low for a long time The Bank of Thailand (BoT) left its policy rate unchanged at an all-time low of just 0.5% today and sounded more downbeat about the prospects for growth this year. The poor outlook for the economy... 3rd February 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Myanmar: the economic consequences of the coup Myanmar’s biggest investors and trading partners are its neighbours, notably China, which won’t respond to yesterday’s coup with sanctions. But the economic consequences could still be significant if... 2nd February 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Focus Vietnam: the Party’s plans for the next five years The period covered by the new Five-Year Plan offers Vietnam an opportunity to establish itself as a major export manufacturing hub. Policy priorities will be to improve the business environment so as... 1st February 2021 · 11 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (Jan.) Korean exports remain elevated at the start of this year, buoyed by shipments of electronics and autos. While some of this strength may fade later in the year, Korea’s external sector is still set for... 1st February 2021 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jan.) PMI readings for Asia suggest that manufacturing sectors improved further in most places. Buoyant global demand for electronics should continue to support the sector for at least the next few months. 1st February 2021 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Korea recovery, new virus threats The latest batch of activity data from Korea indicate the economy held up well in December despite the surge in cases and suggest that companies are learning to cope better with new COVID-19... 29th January 2021 · 7 mins read
Asia Data Response Taiwan GDP (Q4, provisional) Figures released today show Taiwan’s economy continued to outperform last quarter, thanks to continued strong demand for the island’s exports. Although the economy will continue to slow in q/q terms... 29th January 2021 · 2 mins read
