Emerging Markets Economics Update EM default risks: more than meets the eye The effects of the pandemic followed by the war in Ukraine have pushed a growing number of EMs into debt distress. And while some (Tunisia, Ghana) look likely to follow Sri Lanka’s path into default... 14th July 2022 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update Tough times ahead as Pakistan agrees IMF deal The resumption of the loan deal between Pakistan and the IMF should put the economy back on a more secure footing and limit the biggest downside risks. But the cuts to government spending that the... 14th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Philippines: more tightening ahead as BSP turns hawkish The decision by the central bank in the Philippines to raise its benchmark policy rate by a further 75bp (to 3.25%) at an unscheduled meeting reflects mounting concerns about inflation. Further hikes... 14th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update MAS tightens even as economy stagnates The city-state’s economy unexpectedly stagnated in the second quarter but this didn’t prevent the MAS from tightening monetary policy today in a bid to tackle high inflation. While we expect output to... 14th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily EUR/USD: To parity and beyond? While the euro’s rapid fall over the past couple of weeks means that a lot of bad news about the euro-zone economy now appears to be discounted, the trends driving the common currency lower may... 12th July 2022 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Bank of Korea to play it safe The Bank of Korea (BoK) has raised interest rates by 25bp five times so far this cycle, and further hikes looked nailed on for the central bank’s meeting on Wednesday. But whereas the consensus is... 8th July 2022 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan: Further hikes likely as IMF deal nears The State Bank of Pakistan today raised its main policy rate by 125bps (to 15.0%), and made clear that fighting inflation would remain its priority. Given that inflation looks set to rise further in... 7th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka: rate hikes not enough to restore stability The central bank in Sri Lanka (CBSL) today raised its benchmark lending facility rate by a further 100bp (to 15.5%), and with inflation running at over 50%, more tightening seems likely. However, rate... 7th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka: rate hikes not enough to restore stability The central bank in Sri Lanka (CBSL) today raised its benchmark lending facility rate by a further 100bp (to 15.5%), and with inflation running at over 50%, more tightening seems likely. However, rate... 7th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How far are we through the EM tightening cycle? Tightening cycles in Latin America and Emerging Europe are already at an advanced stage. Some 70-80% of the likely rate hikes in their cycles have already been delivered and policymakers will bring... 6th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia: central bank signals gradual tightening cycle Bank Negara Malaysia today raised its main policy rate by 25bps to 2.25% and reiterated that further tightening would be gradual. With the economy on the mend but inflation still low, we are sticking... 6th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update PMIs: recovery in China but weakness elsewhere The S&P Global EM manufacturing PMI hit its highest level in over a year last month, but that was almost entirely driven by a recovery in China. The surveys softened across most of the rest of the... 1st July 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Worries over weak won, Pakistan nearing IMF deal The weakness of the Korean won, which has fallen by over 8% against the US dollar since the start of 2022, is likely to be welcomed by the country’s exporters, who face the prospect of a sharp... 1st July 2022 · 6 mins read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs, Korea Trade, Indonesia CPI Manufacturing PMIs for June fell back mainly due to the weakness of external demand. We think weaker global growth will remain a drag on exports over the coming months and that the region’s industrial... 1st July 2022 · 2 mins read
EM Markets Chart Pack We think EM assets will remain under pressure We expect the yields of emerging market (EM) local-currency (LC) and dollar sovereign bonds to rise further and EM equities to lose more ground as “risk-free” rates continue to climb and global... 30th June 2022 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam: on the mend Economic growth in Vietnam accelerated in the second quarter of the year, thanks mainly to a reopening boost and continued strong export demand. We expect the recovery to continue over the coming... 29th June 2022 · 2 mins read
