Asia Data Response Thailand GDP (Q2) Thailand’s economy rebounded strongly in the first quarter of the year on the back of a strong reopening boost. Although higher commodity prices will drag on the recovery, with the tourism sector... 15th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Better news on inflation, as growth disappoints The recent national accounts data show most countries experienced a difficult second quarter. However, there was some more encouraging news on inflation – which already appears to have peaked in a few... 12th August 2022 · 6 mins read
Asia Data Response Malaysia GDP (Q2) GDP growth in Malaysia edged down in q/q terms last quarter, and we expect a further slowdown over the coming quarters as commodity prices drop back and the boost from reopening fades. 12th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Capital outflows from EMs have eased over the past month, helping to stabilise local asset prices. But we think outflows will pick up again before long. That’s a threat to those EMs whose current... 10th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Thailand: gradual tightening cycle ahead The Bank of Thailand hiked interest rates today by 25bp (to 0.75%), but reiterated that the tightening cycle will be gradual. We are sticking with our view that the policy rate will peak at 1.5% next... 10th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Philippines GDP (Q2) Economic growth in the Philippines unexpectedly slowed in Q2 and we expect growth to remain subdued in the second half of 2022 as high commodity prices, rising interest rates and weaker global demand... 9th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics How much does Taiwan matter? Taiwan matters far more to the world economy than its 1% share of global GDP would A further escalation in cross-strait tensions that cut Taiwan’s export off from the rest of the world would lead to... 8th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update End of the EM tightening cycle creeping closer While DM central banks are currently raising interest rates in earnest, the past week has brought signs that tightening cycles are now nearing an end in parts of the emerging world. Indeed, with... 8th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update What a Taiwan Strait crisis could mean for markets While China-Taiwan tensions haven’t yet caused ructions in global financial markets, any escalation that threatened to disrupt trade and/or financial flows almost certainly would. This Update explores... 5th August 2022 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Lift-off for the Bank of Thailand Thailand is one of the few countries in the region not to have raised interest rates this year, but that looks set to change on Wednesday. We, along with the majority of other analysts, are expecting... 5th August 2022 · 6 mins read
Asia Data Response Indonesia GDP (Q2) Economic growth in Indonesia remained strong in Q2, but we expect the economy to slow in the second half of the year as the jump in commodity prices goes into reverse and the boost from reopening... 5th August 2022 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update China doesn’t appear to want an economic fight The trade sanctions introduced by China on Taiwan in retaliation for the visit of Nancy Pelosi are small in scope rather than serious efforts to force Taipei to shift course. China is constrained in... 3rd August 2022 · 3 mins read
Frontier Markets Wrap Five questions and answers on frontier default risks The spreads of sovereign dollar bonds over US Treasuries are in distressed territory in almost a third of EMs covered in the JP Morgan EMBI Index, with the majority of those being frontier markets. In... 3rd August 2022 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Focus The economic consequences of an attack on Taiwan China’s leadership has options other than invasion to coerce Taiwan to submit to its political control. The immediate economic and financial ramifications would differ in each case. But any scenario... 2nd August 2022 · 23 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea: inflation peaks, tightening cycle nearing end Consumer price inflation in Korea increased to a new 24-year high last month, but we think it has now peaked. With headwinds to the economy mounting, we believe that the central bank’s tightening... 2nd August 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing entering choppy waters The drop in the S&P Global EM manufacturing PMI last month suggests that a fading re-opening boost in China and weak global demand have caused industry to slow. And in parts of Eastern Europe, the... 1st August 2022 · 2 mins read
