Asia Economics Update Indonesia: policy to remain on hold for some time Bank Indonesia (BI) left its policy rate unchanged at 3.5% today and signalled that it was in no rush to adjust its monetary policy settings again this year. We expect rates to remain low to support... 17th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM policy tightening will proceed only gradually The broad-based rise in inflation across EMs this year has elicited varying degrees of policy responses from central banks. Those facing above-target inflation and most worried about credibility... 16th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Encouraging signs in Thailand The past week in Thailand has seen a number of encouraging developments, but it is too early to start raising our GDP growth forecasts. 11th June 2021 · 6 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (1st – 10th June) Korean export values dipped a little at the start of June after a record high in May, but external shipments remain well above their pre-crisis level and should continue to boost GDP growth. 11th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Debt risks building, but mostly a medium-term concern Growing political turmoil in Latin America over recent weeks has raised concerns about public debt, though vulnerabilities are most likely to crystallise over the medium term. Meanwhile, EM currency... 10th June 2021 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan: severe capacity constraints but few inflation fears Taiwan’s economy is struggling with severe capacity constraints but there are few signs in recent data that this is fuelling broad-based wage or price pressure. That’s a stark contrast with the US... 10th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily We don’t expect rising inflation to lead to EM currency strength Despite rising inflation, we continue to think that most emerging market (EM) central banks will tighten policy more slowly than investors currently expect. 9th June 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Net capital outflows from emerging markets have eased over the past few weeks and Turkey and India (which suffered large outflows in April and May) have started to see renewed inflows. Even if... 9th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Supply shortages and EM inflation risks Supply-related price pressures are building, particularly in Central Europe and parts of East Asia. And while the factors behind this should prove temporary, output gaps in the most-affected countries... 9th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Korea vaccinations surge, Philippines rate cuts loom A surge in vaccinations in Korea has brightened the prospects for the consumer recovery and strengthened our view that the central bank will be able to begin tightening monetary policy this year. In... 4th June 2021 · 5 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (May) Korean export values surged to an all-time high in May, suggesting that the external sector will drive GDP higher once again this quarter. 1st June 2021 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (May) The May PMIs softened slightly but were still mainly consistent with improvements in manufacturing sectors. Strong global demand for electronics will continue to support output over the next few... 1st June 2021 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia: economic resilience in the face of lockdown Despite the worsening virus situation and the announcement of a “total lockdown”, Malaysia’s economy is likely to hold up relatively well, as booming exports offset the hit to private consumption. We... 31st May 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Focus Rate hikes coming in Korea as recovery gathers momentum With the economy rebounding strongly from the crisis, the Bank of Korea (BoK) is starting to shift its attention away from supporting growth and towards containing financial risks. We expect the BoK... 31st May 2021 · 10 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Oil prices and inflation, fiscal support in Taiwan Fuel price inflation across Emerging Asia will drop back over the coming months as last year’s low base starts to drop out of the annual comparison. With large output gaps set to keep underlying price... 28th May 2021 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea unlikely to alter policy soon The Bank of Korea (BoK) left its main policy rate on hold at 0.50% today and given that the recovery still has a way to go, the BoK is likely to leave policy accommodative for at least the next few... 27th May 2021 · 3 mins read
