Asia Economics Weekly What the end of zero-COVID in China means for Asia Chinese authorities appear to have given up on efforts to contain the spread of COVID-19 much earlier than we had previously anticipated. There may be some disruption to China’s industrial sector in... 16th December 2022 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly Lending rates playing catch up Data released this week reinforce our view that domestic demand is softening in response to higher interest rates. And with the rise in lending rates still having further to run to fully reflect the... 16th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan: tightening cycle at an end Taiwan’s central bank today raised its main policy rate by 12.5bps (to 1.75%) but with inflation easing and growth set to struggle, we expect this hike to have marked an end to the tightening cycle. 15th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Philippines: tightening cycle nearing an end The central bank in the Philippines today raised its main policy rate by 50bps (to 5.50%), but with Governor Felipe Medalla sounding more dovish than expected on inflation, we think the tightening... 15th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Economic Outlook Rate cuts in 2023 as growth slows Economic growth will slow sharply in most of the region in 2023 as higher interest rates and weaker exports drag on demand. Our GDP growth forecasts are below consensus in most countries. With... 13th December 2022 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) & Industrial Production (Oct.) The sharper-than-expected drop in headline CPI inflation in November (to 5.9% y/y) pulls it below the ceiling of the Reserve Bank’s 2-6% target range for the first time in almost a year. We maintain... 12th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Good news on inflation (except in the Philippines) The past week has brought mostly good news on the inflation front. Of the nine countries in the region to have reported November inflation figures, the y/y rate dropped or was stable in eight of them... 9th December 2022 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly BoK sounds dovish as inflation eases and growth slows A string of weak activity data, a sharp drop in inflation and dovish comments from the central bank support our view that the Bank of Korea’s tightening cycle is coming to an end soon. 2nd December 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM industry set to slow further The EM manufacturing PMI broadly plateaued in November, but the surveys remained weak in parts of Central Europe and recorded sharp declines in Brazil, Colombia and Vietnam. On the bright side, price... 1st December 2022 · 2 mins read
EM Markets Chart Pack Zero-COVID’s end might not be panacea for China’s markets Although Chinese stocks have reversed a two year or so downward trend in the past month amid hopes that zero-COVID policies will end, we doubt this is a sign of things to come in the near term. 1st December 2022 · 8 mins read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs, Korea Trade, Indonesia CPI Manufacturing PMIs across the region fell further into contractionary territory in November, driven by a sharp decline in the employment index. We expect conditions to remain subdued as weaker global... 1st December 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM GDP: rebound in Q3, but headwinds building EM GDP rebounded in Q3, but this is unlikely to be the start of a sustained upturn. Headwinds in the form of high inflation, tight monetary policy and weak external demand will drag on growth in the... 30th November 2022 · 2 mins read
India Data Response GDP (Q3) While base effects caused a sharp slowdown in headline GDP growth in India in Q3 (Q2 of FY22/23), growth held up well in quarter-on-quarter terms. However, there are signs in more timely activity data... 30th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Thailand: more tightening to come The Bank of Thailand hiked interest rates today by a further 25bps (to 1.25%), and reiterated that it is likely to continue tightening policy gradually over the coming months. 30th November 2022 · 3 mins read
