India Economics Weekly Oil and current account risks, RBI preview If oil prices were to spike considerably higher as a result of the escalating conflict in the Middle East it would expose an age-old vulnerability in India's external position. But we think the risks... 4th October 2024 · 3 mins read
Equities Update Is this time different for China’s stock market? We’re cautiously optimistic that China’s equity market will hold on to its recent gains, and perhaps even extend upon them in the near term. But we still think its long-run prospects are poor. 4th October 2024 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Government won’t prevent further rate hikes The Q3 Tankan was strong across the board and strengthens the case for another rate hike. While the political noise coming out of Tokyo suggests that the BoJ will keep policy unchanged at its meeting... 4th October 2024 · 5 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Commodities Chart Pack (Oct. 2024) It’s too soon to say whether the Iranian missile strikes on Israel are the start of a conflict that will eventually result in oil supply being affected or if oil prices will drop back as the... 3rd October 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus EMs, fracturing and the scramble for raw materials Access to commodities – particularly critical minerals – is a growing area of competition between China and the West. And those EMs with deposits of the minerals used in new and low-carbon... 3rd October 2024 · 13 mins read
China Economics Update China stimulus: your questions answered China’s recent stimulus announcements are still at the top of many investors’ minds, at least judging by the high level of client interest in the online briefing we ran on the topic yesterday. We’ve... 3rd October 2024 · 8 mins read
Commodities Update Spike in oil risk premium masks fundamental frailties Until the geopolitical situation in the Middle East deescalates, oil prices will clearly remain at risk of spiking higher. But against a backdrop of faltering demand and greater supply in the wider... 2nd October 2024 · 3 mins read
RBI Watch New-look MPC will wait until December to cut rates Little is known about the monetary policy views of the Reserve Bank of India’s incoming MPC members, but the fact that two of the committee’s doves have been replaced suggests that the repo rate will... 2nd October 2024 · 6 mins read
China Economics Update Property stimulus: announced measures still fall short Despite driving a surge in developer stock prices, the property support measures announced so far aren’t that different from previous efforts and are unlikely, on their own, to deliver much better... 2nd October 2024 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing slowed sharply in Q3 The fall in the EM manufacturing PMI in September suggests that growth slowed last quarter and we think this will continue over the coming months. The PMIs did at least provide encouraging signs that... 1st October 2024 · 3 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Sep. 24) The pivot toward stimulus reduces near-term risks and should provide some much-needed support to an economy struggling with a softening labour market and a deep property downturn. But a rebound in... 1st October 2024 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Deflation fears rising in Thailand Price pressures in Thailand remain very weak and the risks of a damaging period of deflation are growing. This is a big concern in a country with high levels of debt. Despite this, the central bank... 1st October 2024 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Manufacturing PMIs, Korea Trade (September) The September PMIs from Asia generally declined from the previous month. And while the PMI surveys aren’t always a good guide to the hard activity data, their recent signals are consistent with our... 1st October 2024 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Asia: key client questions answered We recently held a series of Asia-focussed roundtable discussions with clients in London, covering an array of topics including the impact of Fed easing, the US election, global fracturing and China’s... 1st October 2024 · 6 mins read
Climate Economics Monthly Draghi on green policies; UK farewell to coal power Mario Draghi’s report on EU competitiveness, published this month, provided food for thought on the EU’s decarbonisation strategy. Meanwhile, with the imminent closure of the Ratcliffe-on-Soar coal... 30th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily China vs Japan: a tale of two stock markets We doubt China’s equities will continue to outperform Japan’s through the end of 2025, despite their recent divergence. 30th September 2024 · 4 mins read
