Asia Economics Update Malaysia: Surprise hike, but further tightening unlikely Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) unexpectedly raised its main policy rate (OPR) today by 25bps (to 3.0%), citing the resilient economy as grounds to “further normalise the degree of monetary... 3rd May 2023 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs, Korea Trade and Inflation (Apr.) A simple average of manufacturing PMIs in Emerging Asia rose slightly in April but this was almost entirely driven by a large jump in Thailand’s headline index to a record high. Weak global demand and... 2nd May 2023 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Auto rebound unlikely to last, new currency forecasts Automotive production across Asia, which was badly hit during the pandemic by a shortage of semiconductor components, is now rebounding rapidly as this constraint unwinds. This is providing a boost to... 28th April 2023 · 8 mins read
China Economics Weekly Next in the spotlight: local government debt Investors sometimes talk about a ball of speculative money that rolls around China’s asset markets. There’s a ball of worry too, and it is rolling back into local government debt. The immediate... 28th April 2023 · 8 mins read
Asia Data Response Taiwan GDP (Q1) Taiwan’s GDP contracted sharply in the first quarter of the year, as a slump in exports put the economy into a technical recession. We think the economy will struggle over the coming quarters as weak... 28th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Which central bank will be the next to cut? Vietnam became the first country in the region to start loosening policy when it lowered its refinancing rate at the end of March. We don’t think it will be long before other central banks in Asia... 26th April 2023 · 16 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea GDP (Q1) GDP in Korea rose slightly during the first quarter of the year but we think the economy faces a difficult year ahead as high interest rates and weak external demand weigh on output. 25th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack The monetary policy tide is (slowly) turning EM central banks have, in general, remained in hawkish mood over recent weeks. Tightening cycles have continued in Mexico, Colombia and South Africa in response to high inflation, while policymakers... 24th April 2023 · 9 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Is the rebound in China boosting growth elsewhere? Despite China’s strong economic recovery last quarter, goods exports to the country from elsewhere in Asia fell in Q1. A big part of the reason is that China’s rebound was driven by just three sectors... 21st April 2023 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Inflation expectations fall, but reasons for caution Our dataset on inflation expectations across EMs shows some encouraging falls since 2022 and supports our view that, with EM inflation likely to fall further, monetary easing cycles will start in the... 19th April 2023 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia: rates on hold for the rest of the year Bank Indonesia (BI) today left interest rates unchanged (at 5.75%), and appeared to signal that further rate increases this year were unlikely. With inflation falling and growth easing, we expect... 18th April 2023 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update MAS keeps policy settings on hold as economy contracts The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) kept policy on hold today and with the economy set to struggle and inflation likely to fall sharply over the coming quarters we expect today’s decision to... 14th April 2023 · 3 mins read
