Asia Economics Update China COVID outbreak a large risk for the rest of Asia So far, the spill overs from the COVID outbreak in China to the rest of Asia look to have been relatively minor. But the possibility of major disruption to supply chains remains a large and growing... 6th April 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Counting the fiscal costs of higher oil prices Higher oil prices will boost government revenues in the major EM energy producers, but many other EMs will face a fiscal cost via fuel subsidy programmes. While these costs are likely to be small in... 4th April 2022 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Flaring political risks a major threat in South Asia A constitutional crisis in Pakistan threatens to scupper its deal with the IMF, which would throw its already-precarious external situation into very dangerous territory. Meanwhile, political meltdown... 4th April 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Challenges mounting for EM manufacturers The broad-based fall in March’s manufacturing PMIs shows that the war in Ukraine is starting to take its toll on EM industry, particularly in Emerging Europe, while China’s lockdown is hitting... 1st April 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Q1 GDP data to paint a picture of resilience GDP data released over the next month or so in Emerging Asia are likely to show that recoveries continued everywhere across the region (excluding China) in Q1. That’s despite the fact that almost all... 1st April 2022 · 7 mins read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs, Korea Trade (Mar.) While Korean trade data show exports remained buoyant, regional Manufacturing PMIs point to lost momentum. With headwinds to export-focussed industry mounting, there are tougher times ahead. 1st April 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Frontier debt risks are crystallising The tightening of global financial conditions since the onset of the Fed’s hiking cycle and the war in Ukraine has caused sovereign dollar bond spreads to widen significantly in several frontier... 30th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Thailand: rates to stay low despite inflation worries The Bank of Thailand (BoT) left interest rates unchanged at its meeting today and suggested that it would continue to look through a temporary rise in inflation to support the economic recovery. We... 30th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Omicron recedes, but other headwinds emerge Successful vaccination campaigns allowed governments to keep economies open during the recent Omicron waves, and our Mobility Trackers suggest that activity held up much better than we had originally... 29th March 2022 · 15 mins read
Asia Data Response Vietnam GDP (Q1) Vietnam’s economy recorded solid growth in the first quarter of the year as the economy brushed off the impact of the Omicron wave, but while we expect the recovery to continue over the coming months... 29th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly More dovish signals from South East Asia Dovish comments from policymakers over the past week support our view that central banks in South East Asia will buck the trend of global tightening and leave interest rates unchanged over the coming... 25th March 2022 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Update Singapore reopening will add to inflationary pressures Yesterday’s easing of virus restrictions in Singapore exceeded what we had expected, and now means the risks to our above-consensus growth forecast of 4.0% this year are to the upside. The measures... 25th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Clouds gathering over the near-term outlook Activity in large parts of the emerging world has rebounded following the easing of Omicron waves, but the war in Ukraine has caused the growth outlook for most EMs to worsen again. While commodity... 24th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Philippines: central bank in no rush to tighten The central bank in the Philippines (BSP) left its main policy rate on hold at 2.00% today and will be in little hurry to tighten policy in the months ahead, with supporting the economic recovery set... 24th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack War in Ukraine to drag on EM GDP growth The war in Ukraine will have several economic repercussions for the emerging world. We have lowered our aggregate EM GDP growth forecast for 2022 by 1%-pt, to 3.2%. Russia aside, the biggest downward... 23rd March 2022 · 9 mins read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka running out of options Sri Lanka has no easy choices left as it looks to dig itself out of its economic mess. Outright default or a financing deal with China remain options, but the government appears to be favouring an... 23rd March 2022 · 4 mins read
