Asia Economics Weekly What next for Pakistan and Sri Lanka? Recent tumultuous events in Pakistan and Sri Lanka should eventually pave the way for IMF deals in both countries, which over time may lead to the return of economic stability. However, this is by no... 14th April 2022 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update BoK resumes tightening cycle, more hikes to come. Today’s decision by the Bank of Korea (BoK) to hike its policy rate by 25bp to 1.50% is unlikely to mark the end of its tightening cycle given the strength of inflationary pressures. We expect at... 14th April 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update MAS tightening and strong economy will support SGD The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) tightened monetary policy again at its meeting today. With growth set to remain strong and core inflation likely to stay elevated, we expect the MAS to... 14th April 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Five questions (and answers) on Pakistan’s crisis We held a Drop-In on the political and economic problems facing Pakistan earlier today (see an on-demand recording here). This Update answers some of the most common questions that we received. 13th April 2022 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka suspends debt payments, pushes for IMF deal Sri Lanka’s decision today to suspend payments to bond holders is designed to pave the way for a deal with the IMF and an orderly rescheduling of its debts. The diverse array of creditors to Sri Lanka... 12th April 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan: major challenges await new PM The main challenge facing Shehbaz Sharif, who today replaced Imran Khan as prime minister of Pakistan, is stabilising the economy. The key to achieving this is a deal with the IMF. The price for any... 11th April 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Pakistan: PM Khan stumped, emergency hike by SBP In Pakistan, the week began with a constitutional crisis and it will likely end with a new Prime Minister at the helm following the Supreme Court ruling on Thursday. Prime Minister Khan’s successors... 8th April 2022 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Inverted yield curves a poor signal for EM downturns While yield curves have inverted in a number of emerging markets (and look likely to do so in several others in the coming months), they don’t have a good track record in predicting recessions in the... 6th April 2022 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update China COVID outbreak a large risk for the rest of Asia So far, the spill overs from the COVID outbreak in China to the rest of Asia look to have been relatively minor. But the possibility of major disruption to supply chains remains a large and growing... 6th April 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Counting the fiscal costs of higher oil prices Higher oil prices will boost government revenues in the major EM energy producers, but many other EMs will face a fiscal cost via fuel subsidy programmes. While these costs are likely to be small in... 4th April 2022 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Flaring political risks a major threat in South Asia A constitutional crisis in Pakistan threatens to scupper its deal with the IMF, which would throw its already-precarious external situation into very dangerous territory. Meanwhile, political meltdown... 4th April 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Challenges mounting for EM manufacturers The broad-based fall in March’s manufacturing PMIs shows that the war in Ukraine is starting to take its toll on EM industry, particularly in Emerging Europe, while China’s lockdown is hitting... 1st April 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Q1 GDP data to paint a picture of resilience GDP data released over the next month or so in Emerging Asia are likely to show that recoveries continued everywhere across the region (excluding China) in Q1. That’s despite the fact that almost all... 1st April 2022 · 7 mins read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs, Korea Trade (Mar.) While Korean trade data show exports remained buoyant, regional Manufacturing PMIs point to lost momentum. With headwinds to export-focussed industry mounting, there are tougher times ahead. 1st April 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Frontier debt risks are crystallising The tightening of global financial conditions since the onset of the Fed’s hiking cycle and the war in Ukraine has caused sovereign dollar bond spreads to widen significantly in several frontier... 30th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Thailand: rates to stay low despite inflation worries The Bank of Thailand (BoT) left interest rates unchanged at its meeting today and suggested that it would continue to look through a temporary rise in inflation to support the economic recovery. We... 30th March 2022 · 3 mins read
