Asset Allocation Update Rising geopolitical tensions could prick the AI bubble A further decoupling of trade ties between the US and China or a sharp rise in Cross-Strait tensions, even if a full-blown conflict is avoided, are two big geopolitical events that we think present a... 11th October 2024 · 8 mins read
China Economics Weekly What to look for at the MoF press conference All eyes are on the Ministry of Finance's crucial press conference tomorrow morning. We think this year’s growth target is just about achievable if local governments can be pushed to fully deploy... 11th October 2024 · 10 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Strong household finances underpinning consumption The strength in household incomes poses some upside risks to our GDP forecasts. However, a more forceful recovery in domestic demand won't move the needle much in terms of inflationary pressures. In... 11th October 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update China’s policy stimulus and the spillovers to EMs China’s policy stimulus measures have generated large market moves but it is the fiscal element, which hasn’t been detailed yet, that has the potential to lift the economy. We’re not expecting a huge... 10th October 2024 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update Is fiscal loosening the answer? China’s economy has some cyclical spare capacity that could be filled with fiscal stimulus. But its troubles are mostly structural. The finance ministry won’t solve them on Saturday. 9th October 2024 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Taking stock of the two-speed electric vehicle rollout While electric vehicle (EV) rollouts in Europe and the US have stalled and are set to remain sluggish over the next few years, the uptake of EVs in China has surged beyond expectations. So, for all... 9th October 2024 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update RBI on course for December rate cut The Reserve Bank of India’s new-look MPC voted to keep the repo rate unchanged at 6.50% today as expected but struck a less hawkish tone in its communications, which included a change in the official... 9th October 2024 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Tourism industry still struggling Despite the surge in foreign visitors, Japan’s tourism industry is still struggling as domestic tourists have slashed holiday spending in the face of plunging real incomes. 9th October 2024 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Reality check for China’s stock market: What’s next? China’s offshore equity market plunged today as the latest policy announcement from Beijing disappointed expectations. With much of the low hanging fruit (as far as valuations are concerned) now... 8th October 2024 · 4 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Oct. 2024) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Wage growth is starting to outpace inflation and with real incomes rising, the rebound in consumer... 8th October 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Wage growth still uncomfortably strong in LatAm, CEE Wage growth remains strong across much of Latin America and Central Europe (CEE), and that has stalled the disinflation process in services in particular. This supports our view that, in general... 7th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Labour Cash Earnings (August 24) Base pay rose the most since 1992 in August and we think it will continue to surge in the coming months. According to today’s preliminary estimate, labour cash earnings rose by 3.0 y/y in August. That... 7th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Bank of Korea to begin easing cycle, oil price risks With inflation below target and activity data pointing to a further slowdown, we expect the Bank of Korea to kickstart its easing cycle at its scheduled monetary policy meeting next Friday. Meanwhile... 4th October 2024 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly PBOC resists CNY appreciation, EU votes on EV tariffs In a marked shift following a decade of one-sided intervention, the PBOC is now leaning heavily on its daily fixing rate to limit the renminbi's appreciation. We think this is an attempt to maintain... 4th October 2024 · 6 mins read
