Event Asia Drop-In: Is China in a balance sheet recession? 27th July 2023, 9:00AM BST Widespread angst around China’s growth outlook is fuelling a debate about whether the economy is in the kind of “balance sheet recession” that typified Japan’s experience in the 1990s. In our latest…
Emerging Markets Economics Update Assessing the early evidence of “friend-shoring” in EMs One way in which EMs may benefit from the fragmentation of the global economy into US- and China-aligned blocs is via “friend-shoring”. There appears to be evidence that the US is importing a higher... 19th July 2023 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Thai election farce, BoK’s hawkish hold, El Niño risks The winner of Thailand’s election, Pita Limjaroenrat of the Move Forward Party, on Thursday failed to secure enough votes in parliament to become the country’s next prime minister. This raises the... 14th July 2023 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Update GDP and inflation data support the case for MAS easing Data released today show Singapore's economy remains very weak and we continue to expect growth to come in well below consensus this year. With inflation also falling back sharply, we expect the... 14th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Event Drop-In: El Niño – Gauging the risks to economies and markets 1689775200 The World Meteorological Organisation has announced a 90% probability of an El Niño event in the second half of the year, threatening more extreme climate events.
Asia Economics Update BoK to change course soon The Bank of Korea today left interest rates unchanged (at 3.5%) and the accompanying statement and press conference were more hawkish than we had anticipated. Accordingly, we are pushing back the... 13th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly El Niño key upside risk to inflation in Asia Inflation across Asia continued to slow in June and is likely to fall further over the coming months. The key risk to the outlook is the weather – El Niño conditions have arrived in the Pacific and... 7th July 2023 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka – better times lie ahead Twelve months on from last year’s political and economic crisis, Sri Lanka is slowly getting back on its feet. The economy looks set to rebound steadily over the coming quarters helped by a sharp drop... 6th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Fall in inflation keeps BoK rate cut in play Further falls in inflation and the weakness of the most recent activity data support our view that the Bank of Korea (BoK) will shift to loosening monetary policy sooner than when others expect. 4th July 2023 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Manufacturing PMIs & Korea Trade (June.) Manufacturing PMIs declined across most of Emerging Asia and the underlying data point to further weakness ahead. Falling new orders and elevated inventory levels are likely to continue to weigh on... 3rd July 2023 · 2 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Jun. 2023) This new Chart Pack has been designed to replace our Chart Book in response to client feedback to make our insights more accessible, and with more options to incorporate them into your workflow. Use... 30th June 2023 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Pakistan agrees IMF deal, but will they stick to it? The agreement of a loan deal between Pakistan and the IMF today should put the economy back on a more secure footing and limit the biggest downside risks. However, past experience suggests that the... 30th June 2023 · 10 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Central banks shifting into easing mode EM growth will be weaker than most expect over the coming quarters. And with inflation falling back at the same time, the nascent EM monetary easing cycle will broaden out. Strong wage pressures in... 29th June 2023 · 30 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Latest data point to a weak Q2 The latest monthly activity data suggest that most economies struggled in the second quarter of the year. While tourism arrivals are continuing to rise, there are signs in a few places that the... 29th June 2023 · 15 mins read
