India Economic Outlook Economy in good shape as Modi 3.0 begins Prime Minister Modi begins his third term with a weakened mandate, but an economy that is primed to grow by 6.5-7% per year between 2024 and 2026. That would put India on course to become the world’s... 20th June 2024 · 16 mins read
China Economics Focus What to expect at the Third Plenum The Third Plenum may conclude with a pledge of comprehensive reform in areas spanning the private sector, manufacturing, innovation, social security, economic management and more. That may excite hope... 18th June 2024 · 13 mins read
Asia Economics Focus Korea: growth to slow, inflation to fall, rates to be cut Korea’s economy rebounded strongly last quarter but there are already signs it is losing momentum, and we expect growth to struggle over the coming year. Export growth is likely to ease a little, but... 18th June 2024 · 10 mins read
China Rapid Response China Activity & Spending (May 2024) May’s activity data were a mixed bag with an uptick in retail sales and slowdown in industrial production partially reversing the recent trend of strength on the supply side and weaker demand. 17th June 2024 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (May) Bank loan growth in China was the slowest on record in May, but accelerated government bond issuance helped broader credit growth edge up. Fiscal loosening should support further gains in the near... 14th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Malaysia subsidy cuts, BoK minutes, Pakistan budget Headline inflation in Malaysia has been among the lowest in Asia but that is soon set to change now that the government is pushing ahead with long-planned subsidy cuts aimed at improving the public... 14th June 2024 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Europe leaves the road open for China’s EV-makers China protested the European Commission’s imposition of additional tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles this week but, if the EU goes no further, China’s government is likely to see this as a... 14th June 2024 · 6 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Taiwan Monetary Policy Announcement (June) Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) left its main policy rate unchanged today (at 2.0%), and with growth set to remain strong we expect rates to remain on hold throughout 2024 and 2025. In contrast, the... 13th June 2024 · 4 mins read
India Rapid Response India Consumer Prices (May 2024) Consumer price inflation came in cooler than most expected last month, which should reassure the RBI as it considers when to begin its easing cycle. We remain comfortable with our long-held view that... 12th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Thailand Monetary Policy Announcement (June) Thailand’s central bank (BoT) today left interest rates unchanged and appeared in no rush to loosen policy. We think the weakness of the economy and very low inflation will persuade the central bank... 12th June 2024 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (May 2024) Producer prices picked up for the first time in eight months and consumer price inflation held steady in May. We expect inflation to rebound in the coming months. But due to persistent overcapacity... 12th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Jun. 2024) Net capital inflows into EMs have climbed back into positive territory in recent weeks, driven by a sharp rise in foreign investors’ purchases of Turkish government debt. This strength could continue... 11th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan cuts rate, but further easing to be gradual The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) kicked off its easing cycle today with a 150bps rate cut, and while further cuts are likely, ongoing negotiations with the IMF for a new long-term loan deal mean that... 10th June 2024 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Still struggling to curb dependence on China Today’s trade data underscore again the extent to which global demand is supporting China’s economy, and how little impact the trade restrictions of recent years have had. China’s export volumes have... 7th June 2024 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly BoT to cut rates, inflation falling in Korea, Modi 3.0 A weak economy, low inflation and a strengthening currency mean the conditions are in place for the Bank of Thailand to begin loosening monetary policy at its meeting on Wednesday. Meanwhile... 7th June 2024 · 7 mins read
China Rapid Response China Merchandise Trade (May 2024) Export values rose y/y at the fastest pace since April 2023, with export volumes also picking up. We think exports will remain strong in the coming months, defying the expansion of Western tariffs... 7th June 2024 · 2 mins read
