China Economics Weekly Monetary and fiscal policy turning more supportive Policymakers’ concerns about the near-term outlook have become much more visible over the past couple of weeks, with weak Q2 growth and poor stock market performance triggering rate cuts and talk of... 26th July 2024 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Korean weakness, CBSL rate cut, Vietnam uncertainty The Korean GDP data published earlier this week highlighted how unbalanced the economy has been since the pandemic. Exports have been very strong, but domestic demand has struggled. Meanwhile, Sri... 26th July 2024 · 8 mins read
Global Markets Update India’s budget no boon for the country’s bonds & stocks Strong public investment growth alongside overall fiscal prudence have contributed to the rallies in India’s bond and stock markets over the past couple of years. However, we don’t see much in the... 26th July 2024 · 5 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Singapore Central Bank Policy Meeting (July) The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) kept policy unchanged today, but we think today’s marginally dovish statement raises the likelihood of monetary easing in October. 26th July 2024 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China Medium-term Facility Rate (Jul. 2024) The PBOC’s decision to cut the 1-year interest rate on its medium-term lending facility (MLF) earlier today is unusual for two reasons. First, the 20bp reduction is double the size of the PBOC’s usual... 25th July 2024 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (July 2024) Our India Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The economy is primed to grow by 6.5-7% per year between 2024 and 2026, which would put India on... 24th July 2024 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Plenum Decision fleshes out existing reform agenda The complete Third Plenum “Decision” document provides interesting details on the leadership’s reform agenda across a range of areas. Overall though, it reinforces the central message in last week’s... 22nd July 2024 · 7 mins read
China Rapid Response China Policy Rates (Jul. 2024) The PBOC has lowered its short-term policy rate for the first time since last summer, in line with our expectation for a cut this quarter. Its efforts to prevent long-term yields from falling... 22nd July 2024 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Services-led slowdown, Third Plenum signals The detailed breakdown of Q2’s weaker-than-expected GDP figures point to a broad-based slowdown in almost all parts of the service sector, leaving growth increasingly dependent on industry. The Third... 19th July 2024 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Korea: contraction in Q2, weak H2 Second quarter GDP figures for Korea, due to be published next week, are likely to show the economy contracted last quarter. Growth in the second half of the year is also likely to struggle, with weak... 19th July 2024 · 6 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Malaysia GDP (Q2 2024, adv estimate) GDP growth accelerated sharply the second quarter but, with a jump in inflation set to curtail consumer spending and the boost from tourism likely to fade, we still expect a sharp slowdown in the... 19th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Event China Drop-In: Does the Third Plenum signal a big reform push is coming? 1721635200 The Chinese Communist Party’s Third Plenum ended with a much-anticipated pledge to continue “comprehensively deepening reform”.
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (July 2024) EM recoveries have been stronger than expected this year, but growth in aggregate will slow over the coming quarters. Within this there will be regional variation, with Emerging Asia the outperformer... 18th July 2024 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Third Plenum fails to resolve policy tensions China’s leadership has promised to continue comprehensively deepening reform in a wide range of areas. But there are few signs that the just concluded Third Plenum marks a major change in the... 18th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Indonesia Policy Rate (July 2024) Bank Indonesia today left its policy rate unchanged at 6.25%, but the central bank’s dovish commentary supports our view that rates will be cut in Q4. Today’s decision was correctly predicted by all... 17th July 2024 · 2 mins read
