China Rapid Response GDP (Q3) & Activity (Sep.) According to official GDP, growth more than doubled in q/q terms between Q2 and Q3, reaching a healthy 5.3% annualised rate. Our China Activity Proxy suggests that momentum isn’t quite this strong... 18th October 2023 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Tighter fiscal policy in Malaysia , BoK on hold again Malaysia’s budget for 2024, which was unveiled in parliament today, envisages a modest tightening of fiscal policy. Tighter policy will weigh on an economy which is already being hit hard by the slump... 13th October 2023 · 6 mins read
Event China Drop-In: Q3 data dump and the economic and policy outlook 1697616000 Economists from our China and financial markets teams held an online briefing about the Q3 economic data release and outlook for the Chinese economy and markets.
China Economics Weekly China’s AI chip challenge The US government appears to be about to tighten the controls that it brought in a year ago on China's access to cutting-edge chips. One consequence will be that Chinese firms will find it harder to... 13th October 2023 · 7 mins read
China Rapid Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Sep.) After slowing sharply in Q2, broad credit growth edged up in August and held steady last month. Although a sharp rebound seems unlikely, we do think credit growth could pick up somewhat over the... 13th October 2023 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response Merchandise Trade (Sep.) China’s export values continued to contract year-on-year in September. But to the extent that foreign demand has cooled recently, it is being reflected in export prices rather than export volumes... 13th October 2023 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Sep.) PPI deflation continued to ease in September. CPI inflation edged down, but core inflation remained at a six-month high, with services inflation staying at its highest in 19 months. We expect... 13th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Singapore Monetary Policy Announcement, Q3 GDP (Adv) The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) kept monetary policy settings unchanged today which was in line with both our and consensus expectations. While another hold is likely in January, further... 13th October 2023 · 7 mins read
China Economics Update Industry no offset for slump in property credit demand An increase in lending to other parts of China’s economy has provided a counter-balance to the slump in credit demand that was triggered by the property crisis, but still only a partial one. 12th October 2023 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update Why is China’s commodities demand so strong? China’s recent commodity demand has been stronger than might have been expected given the weakness of its economy and commodity-intensive property sector in particular. This partly reflects a step-up... 12th October 2023 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update Renewed inflation worries unlikely to trigger rate hikes Headline inflation has jumped across much of Emerging Asia over the past couple of months on the back of rises in food and fuel prices. This won’t prompt central banks to resume tightening (the... 11th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Asian Tigers: AI boost will not offset drag from demographics The Asian Tiger economies of Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong and Taiwan are likely to be among the biggest beneficiaries of the emergence of new AI technologies. But the boost will not be enough to offset... 9th October 2023 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly PBOC has CNH on a leash, domestic tourism picks up PBOC intervention in Hong Kong kept the offshore renminbi largely stable against the dollar this week even as US yields jumped. This lowers the chance of a large adjustment to the daily fixing rate... 6th October 2023 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly MAS on hold, inflation concerns in the Philippines. The Monetary Authority of Singapore is likely to leave its policy settings unchanged at its meeting on Friday, but with the economy struggling and inflationary pressures falling back, we are expecting... 6th October 2023 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka: further easing ahead The central bank (CBSL) today cut interest rates by a further 100bps. With inflation low and the economy still very depressed, further easing is likely over the coming months. 5th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea: weak activity data but inflation worries mount The latest activity data from Korea were downbeat. Although industrial production grew strongly, the manufacturing PMIs, along with the export figures and retail sales data, all point to continued... 5th October 2023 · 2 mins read
